Game Recap: MTL 4, TBL 3 (OT), April 19, 2026

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Game Recap

MTL4

Final/OTSun, Apr 19, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

TBL3

MTL beat TBL 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 2.79 expected goals to 1.98. J. Slafkovský scored three for MTL. J. Slafkovský had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Dobes stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
MTL	1	1	1	1	4
TBL	0	2	1	0	3

1st 13:24MTLJ. Anderson0.14 xG
2nd 12:15TBLD. RaddyshPP0.09 xG
2nd 12:44TBLB. Hagel0.08 xG
2nd 19:36MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0.10 xG
3rd 5:56MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0.24 xG
3rd 8:58TBLB. HagelPP0.13 xG
OT 1:22MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0.12 xG

Team Stats

MTLTBL

19Shots on goal23

2.79Expected goals1.98

42Shot attempts54

95v5 shots on goal13

3/5Power play2/5

42Hits44

17Blocked shots10

14Penalty minutes12

16Giveaways7

6Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.79 xGTBL 1.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL19 on goal, 4 scored

TBL23 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Slafkovský	LW	3	0	3	7	2	0	-1	2	21:11	6:26
N. Suzuki	C	0	2	2	0	1	1	-1	0	22:58	6:29
C. Caufield	RW	0	2	2	2	2	1	-1	0	21:11	6:29
I. Demidov	RW	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	16:34	6:23
J. Anderson	RW	1	0	1	1	4	1	+1	4	14:47	0:00
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	16:23	0:49
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	15:16	0:00
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	13:19	0:00
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:58	0:46
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	10:32	0:52
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	9:10	0:46
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:25	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	29:00	7:06
M. Matheson	D	0	1	1	0	4	6	+1	0	22:56	0:09
A. Carrier	D	0	1	1	0	3	2	+1	0	18:36	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	4	21:21	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:33	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	10:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	23	20	3	.870	61:13	Win
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Guentzel	C	0	3	3	4	0	0	+1	2	22:57	7:29
B. Hagel	LW	2	0	2	3	1	0	+1	2	25:27	5:14
N. Kucherov	RW	0	2	2	5	2	0	-1	2	17:38	7:40
B. Point	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	18:30	7:28
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	17:35	0:14
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	1	6	1	+1	2	17:35	1:36
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	1	7	1	0	0	13:47	0:15
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:42	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:43	0:39
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	8:42	0:00
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	8:12	0:00
D. James	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:18	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	1	0	1	6	4	0	-1	0	23:55	7:35
R. McDonagh	D	0	1	1	0	4	1	+1	0	21:19	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	22:12	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	+1	0	20:53	0:07
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	17:27	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:35	0:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	19	15	4	.789	61:22	Loss
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki15:01J. Slafkovský14:40C. Caufield13:20

Line 2A. Texier9:36A. Newhook10:23I. Demidov10:02

Line 3P. Danault10:09J. Anderson11:16J. Evans9:44

Line 4Z. Bolduc8:22O. Kapanen7:43K. Dach9:13

Pair 1L. Hutson18:35K. Guhle17:05

Pair 2M. Matheson14:19A. Carrier13:33

Pair 3J. Struble11:43A. Xhekaj10:56

TBL

Line 1Y. Gourde14:04N. Paul13:17Z. Girgensons10:01

Line 2J. Guentzel13:28B. Hagel14:17A. Cirelli11:11

Line 3N. Kucherov9:25B. Point9:27G. Goncalves10:04

Line 4C. Perry8:33C. Geekie8:12D. James7:18

Pair 1D. Raddysh15:13J. Moser18:58

Pair 2R. McDonagh15:09E. Cernak15:02

Pair 3E. Lilleberg14:43C. D'Astous7:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.0, TBL 3.7	MTL 4, TBL 3
Total goals	6.6	7
Shots on goal	MTL 24.8, TBL 29.4	MTL 19, TBL 23
Win chance	TBL 61%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.1	5	1.60	2	38%	0
MTL C. Caufield	3.0	2	0.84	2	34%	0
TBL B. Hagel	3.0	3	1.07	2	35%	2
TBL J. Guentzel	2.9	4	1.12	3	40%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.5	6	0.75	1	16%	1
TBL B. Point	2.3	0	0.98	0	37%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.2	7	0.75	3	24%	3
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	0	0.93	2	26%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	1	0.68	0	25%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.6	2	0.69	1	19%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.6	1	0.42	0	20%	0
TBL D. James	1.5	0	0.40	0	17%	0
TBL C. Perry	1.5	1	0.46	0	21%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.5	2	0.83	1	11%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.4	0	0.37	1	8%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.4	1	0.43	0	15%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.4	1	0.41	0	17%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.3	1	0.37	0	15%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.3	0	0.51	0	17%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.3	0	0.38	0	16%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.3	0	0.32	0	7%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.3	1	0.35	0	16%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.2	0	0.25	0	12%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.2	1	0.28	1	15%	1
TBL C. D'Astous	1.2	0	0.39	0	7%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.1	0	0.25	0	7%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.1	1	0.32	0	12%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.1	0	0.32	0	12%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	0	0.32	0	12%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	1	0.20	0	4%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.9	0	0.37	1	5%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.9	0	0.26	0	4%	0
TBL C. Geekie	0.9	0	0.22	0	11%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.8	0	0.25	1	5%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.8	1	0.10	0	3%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.7	0	0.20	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.