Game Recap: MTL 2, TBL 3 (OT), April 21, 2026

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Game Recap

MTL2

Final/OTTue, Apr 21, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

TBL3

TBL beat MTL 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.37 expected goals to 2.60. B. Hagel led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). L. Hutson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
MTL	1	1	0	0	2
TBL	1	0	1	1	3

1st 8:40TBLB. Hagel0.01 xG
1st 16:11MTLL. HutsonPP0.05 xG
2nd 18:36MTLJ. Anderson0.15 xG
3rd 12:33TBLN. Kucherov0.08 xG
OT 12:48TBLJ. Moser0.05 xG

Team Stats

MTLTBL

27Shots on goal34

2.60Expected goals2.37

56Shot attempts79

185v5 shots on goal29

1/4Power play0/3

43Hits34

25Blocked shots15

25Penalty minutes27

20Giveaways15

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.60 xGTBL 2.37 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL27 on goal, 2 scored

TBL33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	-2	0	25:08	6:47
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	-2	0	24:50	6:46
P. Danault	C	0	1	1	0	3	2	+1	0	18:38	0:05
J. Anderson	RW	1	0	1	4	5	1	+1	2	17:21	0:00
J. Evans	C	0	1	1	2	2	3	+1	2	16:39	0:00
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	5	25:33	6:49
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	20:39	6:37
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	18:57	1:04
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	16:37	1:01
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	12:02	1:05
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	2	10:53	0:39
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	10:04	0:00
L. Hutson	D	1	0	1	6	0	2	-1	0	32:00	6:47
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	2	28:47	1:09
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	3	4	-1	2	27:18	0:03
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	3	3	3	-2	2	26:24	0:23
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:05	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	6	9:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	34	31	3	.912	72:48	Loss
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Hagel	LW	1	1	2	1	1	0	+3	7	23:52	3:26
A. Cirelli	C	0	2	2	0	3	0	+3	0	22:43	0:55
J. Guentzel	C	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	2	25:10	5:40
N. Kucherov	RW	1	0	1	5	1	1	+2	2	23:22	5:38
B. Point	C	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	21:34	5:21
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	19:58	1:38
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	4	18:41	0:00
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	2	13:32	0:20
D. James	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:25	0:19
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	0	12:54	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	4	10:49	0:19
S. Sabourin	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	2	8:20	0:00
J. Moser	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+2	0	29:14	0:38
E. Cernak	D	0	1	1	1	3	2	+1	0	21:26	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	+2	2	27:28	5:41
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	-1	0	23:31	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	2	21:06	0:05
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	17:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	27	25	2	.926	72:14	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1J. Slafkovský17:53N. Suzuki17:08C. Caufield17:22

Line 2A. Texier15:27A. Newhook14:59I. Demidov12:53

Line 3P. Danault15:24J. Evans13:44J. Anderson14:05

Line 4Z. Bolduc10:30O. Kapanen9:41K. Dach9:40

Pair 1M. Matheson21:28A. Carrier21:53

Pair 2K. Guhle22:29L. Hutson23:09

Pair 3J. Struble15:05A. Xhekaj9:05

TBL

Line 1A. Cirelli15:23B. Hagel15:10J. Guentzel18:45

Line 2N. Kucherov16:30B. Point14:51G. Goncalves16:23

Line 3C. Perry9:56S. Sabourin8:20Z. Girgensons10:59

Line 4D. James13:06Y. Gourde16:11

Pair 1D. Raddysh20:19J. Moser23:35

Pair 2E. Lilleberg20:34D. Carlile16:06

Pair 3R. McDonagh17:20E. Cernak15:23

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.9, TBL 3.6	MTL 2, TBL 3
Total goals	6.6	5
Shots on goal	MTL 24.4, TBL 29.1	MTL 27, TBL 34
Win chance	TBL 60%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL B. Hagel	3.1	1	1.12	2	37%	1
MTL C. Caufield	3.1	1	0.87	1	35%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.0	5	1.59	1	37%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	3.0	4	1.15	1	40%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.7	4	0.78	0	17%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.3	2	0.77	0	25%	0
TBL B. Point	2.3	4	1.00	0	38%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	2	0.96	1	26%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	0	0.67	2	25%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.6	0	0.71	0	20%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.5	3	0.40	0	20%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.5	6	0.88	1	11%	1
TBL Y. Gourde	1.4	2	0.43	0	15%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.4	2	0.37	0	8%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.4	0	0.41	0	18%	0
TBL D. James	1.4	1	0.36	0	15%	0
TBL C. Perry	1.3	1	0.40	0	19%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.3	2	0.35	0	14%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.3	2	0.32	1	7%	1
MTL J. Anderson	1.2	4	0.29	1	15%	1
TBL G. Goncalves	1.2	2	0.48	0	16%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.2	1	0.24	0	12%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.2	2	0.35	0	15%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.2	1	0.32	0	15%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.1	3	0.26	0	7%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.1	0	0.32	1	12%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.0	0	0.30	0	12%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	2	0.33	1	12%	0
TBL E. Cernak	1.0	1	0.21	1	4%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.9	1	0.39	0	6%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.9	1	0.12	0	5%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.9	1	0.25	0	4%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.8	0	0.26	0	5%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.8	0	0.09	0	3%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.6	0	0.19	0	4%	0
TBL S. Sabourin	0.6	0	0.21	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.