Game Recap: MTL 3, TBL 2, April 29, 2026

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Game Recap

MTL3

FinalWed, Apr 29, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

TBL2

MTL beat TBL 3-2, with the chances close: 2.53 expected goals to 2.70. TBL outshot MTL 40 to 24. N. Kucherov had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. J. Dobes stopped 38 of 40.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	1	1	1	3
TBL	0	2	0	2

1st 3:00MTLB. Gallagher0.39 xG
2nd 6:49TBLD. James0.14 xG
2nd 7:00MTLK. Dach0.16 xG
2nd 17:23TBLJ. Guentzel0.14 xG
3rd 1:06MTLA. Texier0.04 xG

Team Stats

MTLTBL

24Shots on goal40

2.53Expected goals2.70

51Shot attempts63

205v5 shots on goal24

0/2Power play0/3

37Hits23

16Blocked shots18

8Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways18

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.53 xGTBL 2.70 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL24 on goal, 3 scored

TBL40 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	-1	0	20:42	2:08
A. Newhook	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	14:35	0:58
A. Texier	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+2	0	13:40	1:33
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	1	1	0	3	0	+2	0	13:26	1:29
K. Dach	C	1	0	1	1	3	2	+2	0	11:46	1:39
B. Gallagher	RW	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	0	6:48	0:00
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	19:40	0:14
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	19:27	2:47
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	15:32	0:12
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	2	15:14	0:13
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:13	2:13
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	11:07	2:19
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	2	23:31	2:47
K. Guhle	D	0	1	1	2	4	0	+1	2	21:41	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	-1	0	27:54	1:13
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	23:27	0:15
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	0	10:23	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	9:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	40	38	2	.950	60:00	Win
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Guentzel	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	22:11	4:38
Y. Gourde	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	14:23	0:03
G. Goncalves	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	13:51	1:13
D. James	C	1	0	1	2	1	2	-1	0	13:14	1:21
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	5	3	1	0	0	23:12	3:18
N. Kucherov	RW	0	0	0	8	1	0	0	0	21:44	4:36
B. Point	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	21:17	4:25
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	20:49	1:45
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	2	2	3	-1	0	14:47	1:03
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	7:21	0:03
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	6:55	1:32
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	5:04	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	6	5	1	+1	0	25:26	4:55
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	1	1	5	+1	0	20:33	1:02
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	17:40	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	4	16:23	0:03
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	15:56	0:03
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	15:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	24	21	3	.875	57:27	Loss
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1J. Anderson12:54N. Suzuki14:08C. Caufield10:27

Line 2Z. Bolduc11:57K. Dach10:07A. Texier12:07

Line 3P. Danault14:00A. Newhook10:06B. Gallagher6:48

Line 4J. Slafkovský13:20I. Demidov8:11J. Evans11:43

Pair 1K. Guhle18:48L. Hutson19:03

Pair 2M. Matheson18:03A. Carrier15:35

Pair 3J. Struble10:04A. Xhekaj9:54

TBL

Line 1G. Goncalves12:16D. James11:53O. Bjorkstrand13:44

Line 2N. Kucherov13:45B. Hagel14:54B. Point14:06

Line 3J. Guentzel12:52Y. Gourde12:48A. Cirelli13:21

Line 4C. Perry5:23C. Geekie5:04Z. Girgensons5:59

Pair 1D. Raddysh17:07J. Moser16:07

Pair 2R. McDonagh15:29E. Cernak13:28

Pair 3M. Crozier14:56E. Lilleberg14:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.9, TBL 3.5	MTL 3, TBL 2
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	MTL 24.1, TBL 28.2	MTL 24, TBL 40
Win chance	TBL 60%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL B. Hagel	3.3	5	1.21	0	40%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.2	8	1.66	0	39%	0
MTL C. Caufield	3.0	1	0.88	0	35%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	3.0	4	1.20	1	41%	1
TBL D. Raddysh	2.9	6	0.83	0	18%	0
TBL B. Point	2.3	1	1.01	0	38%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.2	3	0.76	0	25%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	0	0.98	1	27%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	3	0.69	0	25%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.7	3	0.70	0	20%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.6	1	0.90	1	13%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.5	1	0.40	0	9%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.4	2	0.42	1	18%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.4	2	0.40	0	17%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.4	1	0.36	0	8%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.3	0	0.40	1	14%	0
TBL D. James	1.3	2	0.34	1	15%	1
TBL M. Crozier	1.3	1	0.21	0	3%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.3	2	0.37	1	15%	1
MTL J. Anderson	1.3	2	0.30	0	16%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.3	1	0.27	1	12%	1
TBL G. Goncalves	1.2	2	0.46	1	16%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.2	2	0.28	1	7%	0
TBL C. Perry	1.2	1	0.35	0	17%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.2	0	0.36	1	15%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.1	0	0.34	0	13%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.0	0	0.21	0	10%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	3	0.34	0	12%	0
TBL E. Cernak	1.0	1	0.22	0	4%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.0	1	0.29	1	11%	1
TBL R. McDonagh	0.9	2	0.38	0	6%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	0	0.28	0	6%	0
TBL C. Geekie	0.8	1	0.21	0	10%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.8	0	0.23	0	4%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.6	1	0.09	0	3%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.5	1	0.16	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.