MTL beat TBL 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 0.79 expected goals to 2.81. TBL outshot MTL 29 to 9. K. Guhle led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). D. James had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Dobes stopped 28 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| TBL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 18:39MTLN. Suzuki0.04 xG
- 2nd 13:27TBLD. JamesPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 11:07MTLA. Newhook0.09 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 0.79 xGTBL 2.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 22:48 | 3:50 |
| A. Newhook | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:25 | 3:41 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 0:00 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:50 | 3:39 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:00 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:29 | 3:00 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:15 | 0:00 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:45 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:51 | 0:02 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:48 | 0:00 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 20:56 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:27 | 3:41 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 25:22 | 0:13 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:39 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 | 0:19 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:06 | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:54 |
| D. James | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:54 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:53 | 1:57 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:16 | 1:57 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 | 1:57 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:06 | 1:57 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:55 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:06 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:58 | 0:54 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:41 | 0:54 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 26:07 | 1:57 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:12 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:18 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 9 | 7 | 2 | .778 | 57:30 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MTL
TBL
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.9, TBL 3.5 | MTL 2, TBL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 24.1, TBL 29.2 | MTL 9, TBL 29 |
| Win chance | TBL 61% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL B. Hagel | 3.4 | 3 | 1.24 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.4 | 3 | 1.64 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 3.2 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.0 | 4 | 1.16 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.9 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.3 | 2 | 0.98 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.3 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.1 | 3 | 0.97 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.9 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 1.8 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.7 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.89 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.4 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL D. James | 1.4 | 4 | 0.38 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.4 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.3 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL P. Danault | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.2 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL C. Perry | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.9 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.5 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.