Game Recap: MTL 2, TOR 5, October 8, 2025

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Game Recap

MTL2

FinalWed, Oct 8, 2025Every game that night

TOR5

TOR beat MTL 5-2, with the chances close: 3.59 expected goals to 3.09. W. Nylander led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Slafkovský had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. A. Stolarz stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	1	1	0	2
TOR	1	1	3	5

1st 1:00TORB. McMann0.07 xG
1st 5:39MTLO. KapanenSH0.05 xG
2nd 1:30MTLZ. Bolduc0.14 xG
2nd 5:40TORC. Jarnkrok0.09 xG
3rd 9:02TORM. Rielly0.26 xG
3rd 18:28TORA. MatthewsEN0.75 xG
3rd 19:45TORW. NylanderEN0.91 xG

Team Stats

MTLTOR

31Shots on goal27

3.09Expected goals3.59

67Shot attempts49

215v5 shots on goal24

0/2Power play0/2

27Hits35

13Blocked shots17

4Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways12

3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.09 xGTOR 3.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL30 on goal, 2 scored

TOR27 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Z. Bolduc	RW	1	0	1	3	2	0	-1	0	13:34	3:05
B. Gallagher	RW	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	0	13:32	0:46
O. Kapanen	C	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	0	13:19	0:11
K. Dach	C	0	1	1	2	0	3	-1	0	11:47	0:46
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-3	0	20:42	3:03
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-3	0	20:23	3:01
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	6	2	1	-3	0	19:42	3:01
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	15:15	0:12
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:19	0:00
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	13:21	0:55
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	12:59	0:00
P. Laine	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	12:51	0:46
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	22:56	0:59
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	22:32	0:13
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-2	0	21:03	3:02
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	20:40	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	17:24	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	11:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	25	22	3	.880	58:33	Loss
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	1	2	3	1	0	0	+2	2	18:40	3:03
J. Tavares	C	0	2	2	2	1	0	+2	0	17:33	3:01
S. Lorentz	C	0	2	2	0	6	2	+2	0	12:09	0:00
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	1	0	3	+1	0	20:31	3:21
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	2	8	0	0	2	19:30	3:02
B. McMann	C	1	0	1	1	4	0	+1	0	15:54	0:58
M. Maccelli	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	14:37	0:55
C. Jarnkrok	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	11:10	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	13:43	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	12:52	0:42
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	12:18	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	10:40	0:39
M. Rielly	D	1	1	2	5	1	2	+2	0	20:47	3:07
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	+2	0	24:05	0:17
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	23:03	0:06
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+3	0	17:27	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	+1	0	15:58	0:02
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:21	0:47

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	31	29	2	.935	59:42	Win
C. Primeau	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki15:55J. Slafkovský15:19C. Caufield16:00

Line 2A. Newhook12:55I. Demidov12:06O. Kapanen11:01

Line 3J. Evans12:26J. Anderson11:25P. Laine10:43

Line 4B. Gallagher12:26K. Dach10:38Z. Bolduc10:06

Pair 1M. Matheson20:05N. Dobson18:21

Pair 2K. Guhle18:37L. Hutson16:56

Pair 3A. Carrier15:13A. Xhekaj11:03

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews16:29M. Knies15:59M. Maccelli13:26

Line 2J. Tavares13:35B. McMann14:22W. Nylander14:30

Line 3N. Roy10:16S. Lorentz10:18C. Jarnkrok9:48

Line 4M. Domi12:03D. Joshua9:36N. Robertson10:01

Pair 1C. Tanev19:09J. McCabe19:28

Pair 2M. Rielly17:23B. Carlo16:05

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson14:23S. Benoit14:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownArber Xhekaj MTL Plays near home (born in Hamilton)2 SOG
HometownJake Evans MTL Plays in his hometown1 SOG
HometownJosh Anderson MTL Plays near home (born in Burlington)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.8, TOR 3.3	MTL 2, TOR 5
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	MTL 25.8, TOR 27.8	MTL 31, TOR 27
Win chance	TOR 58%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.9	1	1.15	1	45%	1
MTL C. Caufield	3.2	4	0.75	0	31%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.0	1	1.03	3	38%	1
TOR J. Tavares	2.9	2	0.88	2	35%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.4	1	0.61	0	12%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.4	2	0.97	0	29%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.2	2	0.73	1	29%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.1	6	0.64	0	22%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	2.0	1	0.44	1	18%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.0	1	0.41	1	20%	1
MTL P. Laine	2.0	1	0.55	0	22%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.9	1	0.44	0	9%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.7	3	0.43	1	19%	1
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	4	0.36	0	19%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.5	5	0.54	2	9%	1
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	1	0.29	0	16%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	1	0.37	0	16%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.5	0	0.48	0	19%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.4	4	0.51	0	14%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.4	0	0.41	1	13%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.4	2	0.37	1	14%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.3	0	0.31	0	8%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.3	1	0.35	0	7%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.3	0	0.44	0	15%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.2	0	0.26	2	12%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	3	0.76	0	7%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.2	0	0.30	0	5%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	1	0.36	0	6%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.1	1	0.34	1	15%	1
TOR D. Joshua	1.1	1	0.36	0	17%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	1	0.37	0	12%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.0	2	0.17	0	4%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	0	0.15	0	3%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.8	2	0.10	0	3%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	0.7	2	0.13	1	5%	1
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	1	0.23	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.