Game Recap: MTL 2, TOR 1 (SO), December 6, 2025

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Game Recap

MTL2

Final/SOSat, Dec 6, 2025Every game that night

TOR1

MTL beat TOR 2-1 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.37 expected goals to 1.87. MTL outshot TOR 34 to 23. J. Anderson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Dobes stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
MTL	0	1	0	1	2
TOR	0	0	1	0	1

2nd 8:25MTLC. CaufieldPP0.28 xG
3rd 10:28TORS. LaughtonSH0.13 xG

Team Stats

MTLTOR

34Shots on goal23

3.37Expected goals1.87

60Shot attempts50

225v5 shots on goal18

1/4Power play0/3

21Hits28

11Blocked shots8

6Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways12

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.37 xGTOR 1.87 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL33 on goal, 1 scored

TOR22 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	1	1	4	2	0	0	2	21:36	3:53
C. Caufield	RW	1	0	1	4	3	0	0	0	21:20	3:46
I. Demidov	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	16:37	3:37
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	23:12	3:57
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:45	0:20
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	16:06	1:25
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	4	4	1	0	0	15:36	0:17
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	14:47	1:25
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	12:59	1:53
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:12	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	10:31	1:24
J. Davidson	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:31	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	26:56	0:31
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	24:46	3:35
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	-1	2	22:39	1:59
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	18:16	0:08
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:53	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	11:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	23	22	1	.957	64:29	Win
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Roy	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	15:06	0:52
S. Laughton	C	1	0	1	1	4	0	+1	0	14:44	0:00
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	22:52	4:13
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	20:48	4:18
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	20:47	4:19
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:11	0:54
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:10	4:17
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	15:12	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	14:33	0:53
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	13:40	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	9:21	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:58	0:58
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	+1	0	25:30	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	23:58	4:13
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	2	23:24	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	19:30	0:58
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:04	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	12:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Hildeby	34	33	1	.971	64:43	OT loss
A. Akhtyamov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1J. Slafkovský16:20N. Suzuki16:39C. Caufield15:17

Line 2J. Anderson11:41J. Evans12:48B. Gallagher10:50

Line 3A. Texier11:16I. Demidov11:01O. Kapanen10:50

Line 4Z. Bolduc8:47J. Davidson8:22J. Veleno8:33

Pair 1M. Matheson18:54N. Dobson19:05

Pair 2L. Hutson16:59J. Struble15:02

Pair 3A. Carrier13:50A. Xhekaj11:36

TOR

Line 1M. Domi13:09M. Knies15:00A. Matthews13:43

Line 2J. Tavares13:42W. Nylander13:17E. Cowan11:22

Line 3B. McMann13:07D. Joshua14:32N. Roy11:48

Line 4S. Laughton10:34S. Lorentz6:36N. Robertson6:00

Pair 1T. Stecher18:44J. McCabe19:44

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson17:53M. Rielly14:44

Pair 3P. Myers11:05S. Benoit12:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownArber Xhekaj MTL Plays near home (born in Hamilton)0 SOG
HometownJake Evans MTL Plays in his hometown0 SOG
HometownJosh Anderson MTL Plays near home (born in Burlington)4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.9, TOR 3.3	MTL 2, TOR 1
Total goals	6.3	3
Shots on goal	MTL 26.7, TOR 27.8	MTL 34, TOR 23
Win chance	TOR 57%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.8	1	1.19	0	45%	0
TOR J. Tavares	3.0	0	1.01	0	37%	0
MTL C. Caufield	3.0	4	0.80	1	31%	1
TOR W. Nylander	2.7	4	1.15	0	39%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.3	1	0.93	0	30%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	3	0.90	0	26%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.0	4	0.57	0	11%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.0	4	0.58	1	21%	0
TOR E. Cowan	2.0	1	0.59	0	20%	0
TOR B. McMann	1.9	1	0.46	0	22%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	2	0.69	0	12%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.7	3	0.36	0	14%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.6	4	0.47	0	10%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.6	2	0.45	0	17%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.6	4	0.58	0	16%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.5	1	0.42	0	18%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	0	0.42	0	20%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	2	0.52	0	10%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.5	0	0.52	1	19%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.4	1	0.82	0	9%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.4	2	0.63	1	17%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	4	0.30	0	16%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.4	2	0.34	0	14%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.3	1	0.35	1	14%	1
TOR T. Stecher	1.1	0	0.22	0	6%	0
MTL J. Veleno	1.1	0	0.21	0	10%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.1	0	0.14	0	4%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	0	0.34	0	11%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	2	0.28	0	11%	0
MTL J. Davidson	1.0	0	0.12	0	7%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	3	0.42	0	7%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.0	1	0.36	0	17%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	0	0.30	0	5%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.9	0	0.11	0	4%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	0	0.15	0	3%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.8	0	0.22	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.