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Game Recap
MTL5
UTA3
MTL beat UTA 5-3, with the chances close: 3.94 expected goals to 3.95. L. Hutson led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). L. Cooley had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. S. Montembeault stopped 22 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| UTA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 2:11UTAJ. DoanPP0.30 xG
- 1st 3:18MTLM. Matheson0.19 xG
- 1st 19:06UTAN. Bjugstad0.10 xG
- 2nd 10:40MTLP. Laine0.09 xG
- 2nd 18:34MTLK. Dach0.14 xG
- 3rd 3:07UTAL. Cooley0.28 xG
- 3rd 6:33MTLC. Caufield0.10 xG
- 3rd 16:15MTLK. Dach0.02 xG
Team Stats
MTLUTA
27Shots on goal25
3.94Expected goals3.95
54Shot attempts65
155v5 shots on goal16
0/3Power play1/6
22Hits19
17Blocked shots14
24Penalty minutes18
3Giveaways9
7Takeaways13
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 3.94 xGUTA 3.95 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:49 | 3:58 |
| K. Dach | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 14:15 | 1:54 |
| P. Laine | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 14:19 | 3:44 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:37 | 1:44 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:55 | 4:18 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:56 | 1:55 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:25 | 0:02 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 15:57 | 4:04 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:02 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 15:48 | 0:02 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:27 | 2:14 |
| M. Pezzetta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3:50 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 21:41 | 3:54 |
| M. Matheson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 24:08 | 2:05 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:17 | 0:02 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:29 | 0:02 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 8:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:11 | 6:32 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:52 | 7:03 |
| L. Cooley | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:50 | 6:47 |
| J. Doan | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:17 | 6:24 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:11 | 4:05 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:02 | 3:49 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 15:51 | 3:31 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:04 | 3:18 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:07 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:10 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:45 | 0:09 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:22 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 10 | 13:51 | 3:59 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 24:07 | 6:31 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:40 | 0:05 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:04 | 0:19 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 17:48 | 0:06 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 27 | 22 | 5 | .815 | 58:18 | Loss |
| C. Ingram | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 3.0, UTA 3.3 | MTL 5, UTA 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 26.9, UTA 29.2 | MTL 27, UTA 25 |
| Win chance | UTA 55% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.1 | 3 | 0.78 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.7 | 1 | 1.03 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.3 | 6 | 0.86 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.2 | 3 | 0.64 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.2 | 0 | 0.87 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.0 | 3 | 0.57 | 2 | 10% | 1 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 1.9 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.8 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.7 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.6 | 4 | 0.48 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.6 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.6 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.6 | 5 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.5 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.5 | 4 | 0.39 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.5 | 2 | 0.40 | 2 | 15% | 2 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.4 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.64 | 3 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 0.9 | 4 | 0.41 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.8 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL M. Pezzetta | 0.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.