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Game Recap
MTL3
WSH6
WSH beat MTL 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.09 expected goals to 1.88. WSH outshot MTL 34 to 15. A. Ovechkin led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. McMichael had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. C. Lindgren stopped 12 of 15.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| WSH | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
- 2nd 3:21WSHT. WilsonPP0.07 xG
- 2nd 9:52MTLC. CaufieldPP0.06 xG
- 2nd 10:31MTLB. Gallagher0.07 xG
- 2nd 11:45WSHB. Duhaime0.05 xG
- 2nd 12:39WSHJ. Vrana0.19 xG
- 2nd 18:00MTLN. Suzuki0.03 xG
- 3rd 4:21WSHC. McMichael0.07 xG
- 3rd 4:57WSHA. Protas0.04 xG
- 3rd 12:27WSHA. Ovechkin0.08 xG
Team Stats
MTLWSH
15Shots on goal34
1.88Expected goals4.09
49Shot attempts84
105v5 shots on goal24
1/6Power play1/5
23Hits22
24Blocked shots22
15Penalty minutes15
24Giveaways14
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 1.88 xGWSH 4.09 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:15 | 8:10 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:31 | 8:10 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:57 | 2:40 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:20 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:17 | 7:00 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:39 | 7:27 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 | 1:58 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:25 | 2:48 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:00 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:53 | 1:53 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -3 | 9 | 10:49 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:00 | 3:16 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 20:46 | 0:06 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 2 | 27:46 | 6:52 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 21:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:31 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Primeau | 34 | 28 | 6 | .824 | 60:00 | Loss |
| S. Montembeault | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:30 | 7:13 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 17:18 | 3:56 |
| A. Protas | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 14:47 | 0:14 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:44 | 3:10 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:41 | 5:18 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:17 |
| J. Vrana | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:07 | 1:58 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:05 | 5:08 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:58 | 0:05 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 2:09 |
| M. Sgarbossa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 8:03 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:09 | 0:14 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 28:30 | 5:30 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:44 | 0:09 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17:38 | 1:51 |
| A. Alexeyev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| D. McIlrath | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:18 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 15 | 12 | 3 | .800 | 59:46 | Win |
| L. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.9, WSH 3.5 | MTL 3, WSH 6 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 25.6, WSH 31.1 | MTL 15, WSH 34 |
| Win chance | WSH 60% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.3 | 1 | 0.94 | 3 | 39% | 1 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.1 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.6 | 2 | 0.90 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.4 | 5 | 0.67 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| WSH D. Strome | 2.1 | 2 | 0.97 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 2.1 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.1 | 5 | 0.55 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 2.1 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.0 | 1 | 0.84 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.9 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.8 | 1 | 0.49 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.8 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH J. Vrana | 1.8 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.7 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.6 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.5 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.5 | 2 | 0.35 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.4 | 3 | 0.24 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.3 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.2 | 4 | 0.46 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.2 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL J. Barron | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.43 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH M. Sgarbossa | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.9 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH A. Alexeyev | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.8 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH D. McIlrath | 0.5 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.