MTL beat WSH 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.78 expected goals to 2.40. MTL outshot WSH 30 to 17. C. Caufield led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Suzuki had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Dobes stopped 15 of 17.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| WSH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 2:56WSHJ. ChychrunPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 4:56MTLC. Caufield0.17 xG
- 2nd 13:22MTLJ. AndersonSH0.24 xG
- 3rd 1:54WSHL. Eller0.11 xG
- OT 1:15MTLN. Suzuki0.57 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 4.78 xGWSH 2.40 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:05 | 4:32 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:34 | 4:35 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:05 | 4:46 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 | 1:28 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:36 | 4:30 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:24 | 1:29 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:21 | 1:25 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 1:12 |
| M. Pezzetta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 3:05 | 0:00 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:18 | 0:03 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:13 | 4:52 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 27:27 | 1:08 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:21 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5:09 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Dobes | 17 | 15 | 2 | .882 | 61:15 | Win |
| S. Montembeault | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Eller | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:05 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:41 | 0:08 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 10:29 | 0:00 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:53 | 4:28 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:12 | 5:01 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:16 | 0:07 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:31 | 6:35 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:00 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 15:46 | 1:41 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:00 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:33 | 2:12 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:54 | 1:53 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:45 | 4:54 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:34 | 5:10 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 20:20 | 0:00 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:15 | 0:04 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 18:42 | 1:37 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 9 | 9 | 0 | 1.000 | 22:29 | |
| L. Thompson | 21 | 18 | 3 | .857 | 38:46 | OT loss |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.9, WSH 3.4 | MTL 3, WSH 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 25.6, WSH 28.5 | MTL 30, WSH 17 |
| Win chance | WSH 59% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.3 | 1 | 0.94 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.1 | 6 | 0.76 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.5 | 2 | 0.77 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.4 | 1 | 0.68 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.1 | 4 | 0.73 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 2.1 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.1 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 2.0 | 0 | 0.79 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.9 | 1 | 0.96 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 1.9 | 6 | 0.81 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.6 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.6 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.5 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.4 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.2 | 4 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.2 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 0.9 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL M. Pezzetta | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.