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Game Recap
MTL2
WSH3
WSH beat MTL 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.38 expected goals to 2.56. A. Ovechkin led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. Suzuki had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. L. Thompson stopped 33 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| WSH | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 18:34WSHA. OvechkinPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 12:09WSHA. Beauvillier0.31 xG
- 3rd 10:32MTLC. CaufieldPP0.34 xG
- 3rd 15:45MTLN. Suzuki0.18 xG
- OT 2:26WSHA. Ovechkin0.21 xG
Team Stats
MTLWSH
35Shots on goal32
2.56Expected goals3.38
68Shot attempts61
295v5 shots on goal28
1/2Power play1/2
33Hits42
12Blocked shots19
8Penalty minutes8
16Giveaways13
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.56 xGWSH 3.38 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:27 | 2:17 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:41 | 1:39 |
| P. Laine | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 13:14 | 1:42 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:31 | 1:43 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:00 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 14:33 | 0:47 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:49 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:46 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:56 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:35 | 1:40 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 22:27 | 0:12 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:39 | 0:50 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 24:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 32 | 29 | 3 | .906 | 62:21 | Loss |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:49 | 3:01 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:45 | 3:36 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:05 | 2:45 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:58 | 0:00 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:32 | 0:21 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:35 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:50 | 0:51 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11:46 | 0:00 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 26:12 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:19 | 0:35 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:43 | 3:01 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:24 | 3:15 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:00 |
| A. Alexeyev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 35 | 33 | 2 | .943 | 62:26 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.8, WSH 3.5 | MTL 2, WSH 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 23.9, WSH 28.8 | MTL 35, WSH 32 |
| Win chance | WSH 61% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.4 | 4 | 0.92 | 3 | 39% | 2 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.8 | 5 | 0.73 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.6 | 4 | 0.58 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.2 | 7 | 0.98 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.0 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 1.9 | 5 | 0.55 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.9 | 1 | 0.86 | 3 | 28% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.9 | 4 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 1.9 | 5 | 0.34 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.9 | 3 | 0.71 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 1.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.8 | 4 | 0.59 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.4 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.4 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.68 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH A. Alexeyev | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.5 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.