Game Recap: MTL 1, WSH 3, April 23, 2025

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Game Recap

MTL1

FinalWed, Apr 23, 2025PlayoffsEvery game that night

WSH3

WSH beat MTL 3-1, with the chances close: 3.82 expected goals to 3.11. C. McMichael led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Slafkovský had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. L. Thompson stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	0	1	0	1
WSH	0	2	1	3

2nd 1:16MTLC. Dvorak0.54 xG
2nd 3:47WSHC. McMichael0.12 xG
2nd 4:47WSHD. Strome0.16 xG
3rd 19:58WSHC. McMichaelEN0.43 xG

Team Stats

MTLWSH

26Shots on goal32

3.11Expected goals3.82

72Shot attempts61

245v5 shots on goal28

0/2Power play0/1

28Hits37

12Blocked shots24

6Penalty minutes8

19Giveaways15

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.11 xGWSH 3.82 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL26 on goal, 1 scored

WSH31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Gallagher	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	18:04	1:01
C. Dvorak	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	18:01	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	1	1	2	6	0	0	6	13:18	0:00
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	23:58	4:00
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	5	3	1	-2	0	22:33	2:58
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	20:16	2:36
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	16:56	1:25
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	14:45	0:00
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:50	0:51
P. Laine	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:10	3:08
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	7:39	0:00
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:27	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	25:36	3:17
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	25:07	0:44
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	22:46	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	20:25	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:27	0:00
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	9:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	31	29	2	.935	58:07	Loss
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McMichael	LW	2	0	2	4	0	1	+2	0	17:48	0:52
T. Wilson	RW	0	1	1	2	5	1	+1	2	18:11	0:00
P. Dubois	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	17:07	0:56
D. Strome	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	15:19	1:08
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	1	1	3	3	2	0	0	14:53	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	11:58	0:00
R. Leonard	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	11:12	1:05
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	2	16:06	0:00
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	3	3	4	+1	2	14:57	0:00
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	2	8	0	-1	0	14:23	1:51
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	12:28	0:53
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:05	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+2	0	24:10	1:07
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	22:56	0:09
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	+2	0	21:48	1:04
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	-1	0	21:26	0:55
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:01	0:00
A. Alexeyev	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	14:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	26	25	1	.962	60:00	Win
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.9, WSH 3.5	MTL 1, WSH 3
Total goals	6.4	4
Shots on goal	MTL 24.3, WSH 29.0	MTL 26, WSH 32
Win chance	WSH 60%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.4	2	0.94	0	39%	0
MTL C. Caufield	3.0	3	0.74	0	31%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.6	0	0.56	0	17%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.3	0	0.96	0	29%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.2	2	0.74	1	30%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.1	2	0.62	0	11%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.0	4	0.56	2	23%	2
MTL P. Laine	2.0	1	0.55	0	23%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.0	3	0.36	1	16%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.9	3	0.90	1	28%	1
MTL M. Matheson	1.9	3	0.46	0	11%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.9	1	0.44	1	19%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.9	0	0.70	1	24%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.9	5	0.59	0	20%	0
WSH R. Leonard	1.7	3	0.25	1	15%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.6	1	0.38	0	7%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	2	0.32	1	17%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.4	1	0.37	0	16%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.4	1	0.28	0	13%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.3	3	0.41	0	19%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.3	3	0.30	0	9%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.3	2	0.43	1	15%	1
MTL J. Armia	1.3	0	0.30	0	14%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.3	3	0.29	1	12%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.2	1	0.30	0	5%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	0	0.71	0	7%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.1	0	0.26	0	12%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.1	1	0.42	0	7%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	3	0.37	0	18%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	1.1	0	0.27	0	4%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	1	0.38	0	12%	0
MTL E. Heineman	0.9	1	0.25	0	12%	0
WSH A. Alexeyev	0.8	1	0.13	0	3%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.7	1	0.16	0	4%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.5	1	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.