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Game Recap
MTL1
WSH4
WSH beat MTL 4-1, with the chances close: 4.04 expected goals to 4.19. T. Wilson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Ovechkin had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. L. Thompson stopped 28 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| WSH | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 9:12WSHA. OvechkinPP0.01 xG
- 1st 11:15WSHJ. Chychrun0.08 xG
- 2nd 16:59WSHT. WilsonPP0.24 xG
- 3rd 2:40MTLE. Heineman0.13 xG
- 3rd 19:34WSHB. DuhaimeEN0.95 xG
Team Stats
MTLWSH
29Shots on goal28
4.19Expected goals4.04
70Shot attempts53
215v5 shots on goal25
0/2Power play2/3
44Hits29
9Blocked shots23
6Penalty minutes4
5Giveaways11
2Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 4.19 xGWSH 4.04 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:53 | 0:00 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:37 | 0:40 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:10 | 0:00 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:36 | 3:28 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:16 | 2:44 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:00 | 2:47 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:21 | 2:44 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:47 | 0:00 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:44 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:25 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:44 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 27:11 | 2:51 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23:12 | 0:01 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:03 | 0:37 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:18 | 0:00 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Dobes | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 57:23 | Loss |
| C. Primeau | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Wilson | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:48 | 2:24 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 2:19 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:42 | 0:05 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 16:13 | 0:34 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:51 | 2:24 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:40 | 0:00 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 | 0:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:00 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:14 | 0:00 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:38 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 25:51 | 1:50 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:42 | 2:19 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23:56 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:50 | 0:05 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:00 |
| A. Alexeyev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 29 | 28 | 1 | .966 | 59:55 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.9, WSH 3.5 | MTL 1, WSH 4 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 24.5, WSH 28.5 | MTL 29, WSH 28 |
| Win chance | WSH 60% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.4 | 6 | 0.94 | 1 | 39% | 1 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.1 | 3 | 0.76 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.6 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.2 | 3 | 0.95 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.2 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.73 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.1 | 0 | 0.63 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.0 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 2.0 | 1 | 0.93 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 2.0 | 4 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 2.0 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.9 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.9 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.9 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 1.6 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.5 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.5 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 4 | 0.30 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.3 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.3 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.1 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 0.8 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.8 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH A. Alexeyev | 0.7 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.