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Game Recap
MTL2
Final/OTTue, Jan 13, 2026Every game that night
WSH3

WSH beat MTL 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.20 expected goals to 2.22. WSH outshot MTL 42 to 25. R. Sandin led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). J. Carlson had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. L. Thompson stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
MTL11002
WSH00213
  1. 1st 8:14MTLJ. AndersonSH0.07 xG
  2. 2nd 7:40MTLB. Gallagher0.12 xG
  3. 3rd 5:06WSHE. Frank0.06 xG
  4. 3rd 18:06WSHE. Frank0.09 xG
  5. OT 4:21WSHC. McMichael0.39 xG

Team Stats

MTLWSH
25Shots on goal42
2.22Expected goals4.20
50Shot attempts74
125v5 shots on goal25
0/4Power play0/5
21Hits18
20Blocked shots15
25Penalty minutes23
10Giveaways16
2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.22 xGWSH 4.20 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdOTMTL goal, 8:14MTL goal, 7:40WSH goal, 5:06WSH goal, 18:06WSH goal, 4:21

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL23 on goal, 2 scored
WSH40 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
P. DanaultC0113110016:280:00
J. AndersonRW1012210012:320:00
Z. BolducRW0112410011:081:42
B. GallagherRW101200+108:432:05
O. KapanenC000212-1023:102:01
N. SuzukiC000200-1221:154:57
J. SlafkovskýLW000300-2020:344:29
C. CaufieldRW0003000218:234:50
A. TexierLW0002210017:183:39
I. DemidovRW0001010016:033:13
J. VelenoC0000300212:580:00
S. BlaisLW000031026:180:00
N. DobsonD0001130028:374:38
M. MathesonD000100-1027:540:43
L. HutsonD0000140024:582:45
A. CarrierD0001050022:350:00
J. StrubleD000030009:440:00
A. XhekajD0000000177:030:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Montembeault42393.92963:59OT loss
J. Dobes000–0:00

WSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
E. FrankRW202651+1018:064:44
D. StromeC011500+1223:265:48
C. McMichaelLW101421+1022:324:09
A. BeauvillierRW0111010019:312:38
A. OvechkinLW000410+1024:459:43
A. ProtasLW0002000020:201:49
R. LeonardRW000020-2014:364:20
N. DowdC00003101413:310:05
B. LeasonRW0001000010:091:05
S. MilanoLW000210009:213:06
B. DuhaimeLW000201007:340:00
H. LapierreC000001006:270:00
R. SandinD033302+2024:362:48
M. RoyD0112220023:530:29
J. CarlsonD0007030027:467:12
M. FehérváryD0002020218:460:00
T. van RiemsdykD0001100016:200:04
D. McIlrathD000010055:580:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Thompson25232.92063:52Win
C. Lindgren000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1O. Kapanen15:27J. Slafkovský14:21I. Demidov12:35
Line 2A. Texier13:34C. Caufield12:35N. Suzuki13:18
Line 3P. Danault10:54J. Anderson9:35Z. Bolduc9:26
Line 4B. Gallagher6:27J. Veleno8:53S. Blais6:07
Pair 1M. Matheson16:22N. Dobson19:46
Pair 2A. Carrier16:40L. Hutson19:57
Pair 3J. Struble9:11A. Xhekaj6:52

WSH

Line 1A. Ovechkin14:27D. Strome15:33A. Beauvillier14:32
Line 2A. Protas13:59C. McMichael12:19R. Leonard10:16
Line 3N. Dowd11:17B. Leason9:04B. Duhaime6:44
Line 4E. Frank12:36H. Lapierre6:08S. Milano5:56
Pair 1R. Sandin19:43M. Roy19:14
Pair 2J. Carlson15:25M. Fehérváry15:31
Pair 3T. Riemsdyk13:18D. McIlrath5:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreMTL 3.0, WSH 3.6MTL 2, WSH 3
Total goals6.55
Shots on goalMTL 25.9, WSH 28.3MTL 25, WSH 42
Win chanceWSH 60%WSH won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WSH A. Ovechkin3.041.00041%0
MTL C. Caufield2.730.68028%0
WSH A. Beauvillier2.510.50122%0
WSH R. Leonard2.200.71021%0
WSH C. McMichael2.240.71125%1
MTL N. Suzuki2.020.80024%0
WSH A. Protas2.020.75026%0
MTL N. Dobson2.010.52012%0
WSH D. Strome1.950.97130%0
MTL O. Kapanen1.920.51021%0
WSH J. Carlson1.970.72014%0
WSH E. Frank1.860.54223%2
MTL J. Slafkovský1.830.61021%0
MTL B. Gallagher1.820.34114%1
MTL A. Texier1.720.46018%0
MTL M. Matheson1.410.4009%0
MTL I. Demidov1.410.72017%0
MTL P. Danault1.430.39113%0
MTL Z. Bolduc1.420.33117%0
MTL L. Hutson1.400.7709%0
MTL J. Anderson1.320.28115%1
WSH M. Roy1.220.3516%0
WSH N. Dowd1.100.39017%0
WSH M. Fehérváry1.020.3408%0
WSH R. Sandin1.030.3636%0
MTL J. Veleno1.000.1909%0
WSH B. Leason0.910.23010%0
MTL A. Carrier0.910.2805%0
WSH S. Milano0.820.30013%0
MTL A. Xhekaj0.800.0903%0
WSH B. Duhaime0.720.19010%0
MTL S. Blais0.700.2107%0
WSH H. Lapierre0.600.2206%0
WSH T. Riemsdyk0.610.1903%0
MTL J. Struble0.400.1403%0
WSH D. McIlrath0.400.1002%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.