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Game Recap
NJD5
BOS4
NJD beat BOS 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.13 expected goals to 2.51. T. Meier led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Allen stopped 20 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| BOS | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 7:25NJDT. Meier0.15 xG
- 1st 8:43BOSM. Geekie0.05 xG
- 2nd 0:29BOSD. Pastrnak0.17 xG
- 2nd 4:07NJDS. NoesenPP0.29 xG
- 2nd 4:37NJDS. Nemec0.04 xG
- 2nd 13:37NJDD. MercerPP0.11 xG
- 2nd 16:53BOSJ. Farinacci0.23 xG
- 3rd 5:08BOSM. Khusnutdinov0.21 xG
- OT 1:30NJDB. Dumoulin0.10 xG
Team Stats
NJDBOS
26Shots on goal24
3.13Expected goals2.51
57Shot attempts42
195v5 shots on goal16
2/2Power play0/2
20Hits29
8Blocked shots18
6Penalty minutes6
6Giveaways6
9Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 3.13 xGBOS 2.51 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Meier | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:52 | 2:15 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20:39 | 2:15 |
| D. Mercer | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:25 | 1:32 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -4 | 2 | 17:23 | 0:43 |
| M. McLaughlin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 21:41 | 2:15 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:59 | 0:00 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:00 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:58 | 0:00 |
| N. Foote | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:33 | 0:00 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2:51 | 0:00 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:39 | 2:02 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 21:35 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:27 | 0:00 |
| S. Nemec | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:13 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:21 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Allen | 24 | 20 | 4 | .833 | 61:30 | Win |
| J. Markstrom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:01 | 2:21 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:54 | 2:24 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:46 | 2:22 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:42 | 1:25 |
| F. Lysell | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:24 | 1:28 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:11 |
| J. Farinacci | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:58 | 0:00 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 1:26 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:32 | 2:09 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:11 |
| V. Lettieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 12:50 | 1:27 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:11 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 20:57 | 0:25 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 24:06 | 1:02 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:38 | 2:07 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:29 | 0:00 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:00 |
| F. Brunet | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:51 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 26 | 21 | 5 | .808 | 61:28 | OT loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 2.9, BOS 2.9 | NJD 5, BOS 4 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 26.8, BOS 25.4 | NJD 26, BOS 24 |
| Win chance | BOS 50% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.3 | 1 | 1.09 | 2 | 39% | 1 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.1 | 5 | 0.70 | 3 | 31% | 1 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.5 | 0 | 0.89 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.4 | 3 | 0.99 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 2.1 | 3 | 0.53 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.8 | 0 | 0.56 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.8 | 2 | 0.65 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.8 | 3 | 0.46 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.8 | 0 | 0.59 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS V. Lettieri | 1.7 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS F. Lysell | 1.7 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.6 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.5 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.4 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.3 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.3 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.2 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS H. Jokiharju | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD M. McLaughlin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD N. Foote | 1.0 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 0.9 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| BOS J. Lauko | 0.8 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dumoulin | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.7 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 14 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.