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Game Recap
NJD1
BOS4
BOS beat NJD 4-1, with the chances close: 2.13 expected goals to 2.29. NJD outshot BOS 30 to 22. J. Siegenthaler had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. J. Swayman stopped 29 of 30.
Team Stats
NJDBOS
30Shots on goal22
2.29Expected goals2.13
69Shot attempts51
275v5 shots on goal19
0/1Power play0/1
15Hits24
16Blocked shots18
2Penalty minutes2
17Giveaways21
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 2.29 xGBOS 2.13 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Meier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:43 | 0:44 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:52 | 1:23 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:01 | 1:24 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:23 | 0:04 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:25 | 0:04 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:23 | 1:23 |
| A. Gritsyuk | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:36 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:33 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:49 | 0:33 |
| A. Crookshank | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:39 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:44 | 0:00 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:05 | 1:11 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:25 | 1:07 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:15 | 0:05 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:45 | 0:53 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:00 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Allen | 21 | 18 | 3 | .857 | 59:32 | Loss |
| J. Markstrom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 | 1:12 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:30 | 1:44 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 | 1:19 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:53 | 1:08 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:49 | 0:52 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
| F. Minten | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:47 | 0:14 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| A. Steeves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:34 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:41 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:19 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:17 | 0:16 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:29 | 0:51 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 21:07 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 20:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 | 1:09 |
| V. Soderstrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 30 | 29 | 1 | .967 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NJD
Line 1T. Meier17:30N. Hischier16:44J. Bratt17:09
Line 2C. Brown18:55C. Glass16:21A. Gritsyuk13:56
Line 4P. Cotter11:13A. Crookshank9:39L. Glendening8:20
Pair 1D. Hamilton21:09J. Siegenthaler21:10
Pair 3D. Cholowski13:29S. Nemec19:52
BOS
Line 1P. Zacha14:51C. Mittelstadt15:21V. Arvidsson14:57
Line 2T. Jeannot14:29F. Minten14:00M. Kastelic13:59
Line 3E. Lindholm14:17M. Geekie14:18A. Steeves13:08
Line 4S. Kuraly12:23M. Eyssimont12:19M. Khusnutdinov11:57
Pair 1N. Zadorov20:14J. Aspirot20:17
Pair 2H. Lindholm19:56A. Peeke20:23
Pair 3V. Soderstrom14:57M. Lohrei15:54
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 2.9, BOS 3.2 | NJD 1, BOS 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 28.9, BOS 27.9 | NJD 30, BOS 22 |
| Win chance | BOS 55% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD T. Meier | 3.3 | 3 | 0.78 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.7 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.5 | 2 | 0.94 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BOS V. Arvidsson | 2.5 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.5 | 1 | 0.86 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| NJD A. Gritsyuk | 2.4 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.2 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| BOS M. Eyssimont | 2.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 2.0 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.9 | 3 | 0.49 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.8 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.6 | 1 | 0.58 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS A. Steeves | 1.6 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.5 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 1.5 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.5 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.5 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.5 | 0 | 0.62 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD C. Brown | 1.4 | 4 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.4 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.3 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| NJD A. Crookshank | 1.3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 1.2 | 3 | 0.31 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 0.9 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS V. Soderstrom | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.8 | 4 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD D. Cholowski | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD L. Glendening | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.