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Game Recap
NJD0
FinalTue, Apr 14, 2026Every game that night
BOS4

BOS beat NJD 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.13 expected goals to 1.83. M. Kastelic led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). P. Cotter had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.7. J. Swayman stopped 21 of 21.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NJD0000
BOS4004
  1. 1st 0:53BOSM. Geekie0.16 xG
  2. 1st 6:14BOSM. Kastelic0.24 xG
  3. 1st 17:42BOSM. Kastelic0.17 xG
  4. 1st 19:52BOSV. Arvidsson0.47 xG

Team Stats

NJDBOS
21Shots on goal26
1.83Expected goals3.13
63Shot attempts50
205v5 shots on goal26
0/1Power play0/0
8Hits13
9Blocked shots22
0Penalty minutes2
24Giveaways14
3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 1.83 xGBOS 3.13 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdBOS goal, 0:53BOS goal, 6:14BOS goal, 17:42BOS goal, 19:52

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD21 on goal, 0 scored
BOS25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. HughesC000200-2021:071:49
J. BrattLW000010-1019:231:49
C. BrownRW000101-1018:101:49
N. HischierC0000000017:471:49
D. MercerC0002100016:250:00
T. MeierRW0000000015:450:00
C. GlassC0002000014:170:11
N. BjugstadC000030-1013:020:11
P. CotterLW000411-2012:310:11
M. TsyplakovRW000100-1011:500:00
E. DadonovLW000101-2011:080:00
M. McLaughlinC000000-2010:180:00
S. NemecD000001-1021:391:49
J. SiegenthalerD000202-3019:520:11
J. KovacevicD0001010019:430:00
B. DillonD000221-1019:370:00
D. HamiltonD000301-3018:590:11
T. VilenD0000000018:270:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
N. Daws26224.84660:00Loss
J. Allen000–0:00

BOS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. KuralyC022201+2017:530:00
M. KastelicC202420+2013:470:00
D. PastrnakRW011302+1017:080:00
F. MintenC011030+1017:040:00
M. GeekieC101201+1016:420:00
T. JeannotLW011221+2015:060:00
V. ArvidssonLW101100+1013:170:00
P. ZachaC011000+104:580:00
E. LindholmC0000110016:460:00
J. HagensC0001100015:580:00
M. KhusnutdinovC0000010015:220:00
M. EyssimontC000321+1013:370:00
M. LohreiD011101+4021:530:00
H. LindholmD011101+4019:470:00
J. AspirotD0002130020:580:00
A. PeekeD0001130020:160:00
N. ZadorovD0003010219:100:00
C. McAvoyD0000050018:180:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Swayman212101.00060:00Win
J. Korpisalo000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1J. Bratt17:34J. Hughes19:18C. Brown16:21
Line 2N. Hischier15:58D. Mercer16:25T. Meier15:45
Line 3C. Glass14:06N. Bjugstad12:51M. Tsyplakov11:50
Line 4E. Dadonov11:08M. McLaughlin10:18P. Cotter12:20
Pair 1B. Dillon19:37S. Nemec19:50
Pair 2D. Hamilton18:48J. Siegenthaler19:41
Pair 3J. Kovacevic19:43T. Vilen18:27

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak17:08M. Geekie16:42E. Lindholm16:46
Line 2F. Minten17:04J. Hagens15:58M. Khusnutdinov14:51
Line 3S. Kuraly16:40T. Jeannot14:07M. Kastelic12:30
Line 4V. Arvidsson13:17M. Eyssimont13:37P. Zacha4:58
Pair 1H. Lindholm19:03M. Lohrei20:39
Pair 2N. Zadorov19:10A. Peeke19:30
Pair 3C. McAvoy18:18J. Aspirot19:42

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNJD 3.1, BOS 3.2NJD 0, BOS 4
Total goals6.34
Shots on goalNJD 30.0, BOS 26.6NJD 21, BOS 26
Win chanceBOS 53%BOS won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD J. Hughes3.921.16036%0
NJD T. Meier3.300.61029%0
BOS D. Pastrnak3.131.23139%0
NJD N. Hischier2.500.79029%0
BOS V. Arvidsson2.410.71125%1
NJD D. Hamilton2.430.54013%0
NJD J. Bratt2.200.85024%0
NJD D. Mercer2.020.49023%0
BOS M. Geekie1.920.72130%1
NJD C. Brown1.810.58019%0
BOS C. McAvoy1.700.73012%0
BOS E. Lindholm1.700.62023%0
BOS M. Eyssimont1.730.24011%0
BOS P. Zacha1.600.68122%0
BOS F. Minten1.500.44120%0
NJD S. Nemec1.400.35010%0
BOS H. Lindholm1.410.3817%0
NJD C. Glass1.420.33015%0
NJD N. Bjugstad1.300.22012%0
BOS N. Zadorov1.330.2907%0
BOS S. Kuraly1.220.24210%0
BOS A. Peeke1.110.2105%0
BOS M. Kastelic1.040.23211%2
BOS M. Lohrei1.010.3217%0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov1.000.38015%0
NJD E. Dadonov0.910.25011%0
NJD J. Kovacevic0.910.2104%0
BOS T. Jeannot0.820.22110%0
NJD M. Tsyplakov0.810.1606%0
BOS J. Aspirot0.820.2205%0
NJD J. Siegenthaler0.820.2003%0
NJD M. McLaughlin0.700.18011%0
NJD B. Dillon0.720.2004%0
NJD P. Cotter0.740.18010%0

Shots on goal: 15 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.