NJD beat BUF 4-1, with the chances close: 3.07 expected goals to 2.42. BUF outshot NJD 31 to 23. P. Cotter led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Cozens had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. J. Markstrom stopped 30 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| BUF | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 8:39NJDS. Noesen0.15 xG
- 1st 15:38NJDJ. Kovacevic0.02 xG
- 2nd 3:29NJDN. Hischier0.01 xG
- 3rd 10:07BUFO. Power0.03 xG
- 3rd 17:28NJDP. CotterEN0.92 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 3.07 xGBUF 2.42 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Cotter | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 10:13 | 0:13 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 10:01 | 0:00 |
| N. Hischier | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:15 | 2:38 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:16 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:53 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:35 | 2:55 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:11 | 2:49 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 | 2:49 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:16 | 0:52 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:53 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:55 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:18 | 0:15 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 20:29 | 0:17 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:59 | 0:29 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:59 | 2:48 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17:13 | 0:01 |
| S. Casey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:57 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 59:38 | Win |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:22 | 3:41 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:31 | 3:28 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:29 | 3:09 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:57 | 4:27 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:41 | 3:30 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:23 | 4:32 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:03 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:19 | 4:19 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:05 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:55 | 0:00 |
| N. Aube-Kubel | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5:45 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:52 | 4:49 |
| O. Power | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:27 | 4:19 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 22:48 | 3:41 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:02 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 59:05 | Loss |
| D. Levi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 3.0, BUF 3.4 | NJD 4, BUF 1 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 28.4, BUF 31.6 | NJD 23, BUF 31 |
| Win chance | BUF 57% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 4.5 | 2 | 1.16 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.7 | 2 | 0.83 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 3.5 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.2 | 3 | 0.86 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 3.2 | 2 | 0.97 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 3.1 | 2 | 1.01 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.9 | 4 | 0.95 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.7 | 7 | 0.70 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.6 | 4 | 0.59 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.5 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.5 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 2.2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 2.1 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.9 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.9 | 0 | 0.54 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.5 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 0 | 0.48 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF N. Aube-Kubel | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 2 | 7% | 1 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.