BUF beat NJD 4-3, with the chances close: 3.39 expected goals to 3.37. BUF outshot NJD 34 to 24. T. Thompson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). O. Power had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. U. Luukkonen stopped 21 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| BUF | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 8:11BUFT. Thompson0.35 xG
- 1st 15:50BUFJ. Peterka0.15 xG
- 1st 19:31BUFR. McLeodSH0.16 xG
- 2nd 4:38NJDP. Cotter0.72 xG
- 2nd 17:25BUFJ. Zucker0.12 xG
- 3rd 0:18NJDP. Cotter0.01 xG
- 3rd 5:32NJDJ. HughesSH0.16 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 3.37 xGBUF 3.39 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Cotter | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:15 | 2:20 |
| J. Hughes | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20:12 | 5:18 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:19 | 4:54 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:00 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:01 | 4:10 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:21 | 3:57 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 14:43 | 3:39 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:17 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:28 | 1:12 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:02 | 2:43 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 17 | 13:02 | 2:35 |
| K. MacDermid | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:59 | 0:17 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 19:54 | 4:54 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:35 | 0:17 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:13 | 0:09 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:46 | 2:53 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:38 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 23:45 | 4:17 |
| R. McLeod | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:29 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:10 | 4:16 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 4:24 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:08 | 5:32 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 3:14 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:24 | 0:35 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 1:23 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 4:03 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:41 | 3:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20:33 | 3:12 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:28 | 5:44 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 21:31 | 3:43 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | +1 | 0 | 18:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:05 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 24 | 21 | 3 | .875 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 3.0, BUF 2.8 | NJD 3, BUF 4 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 29.0, BUF 26.9 | NJD 24, BUF 34 |
| Win chance | NJD 53% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.8 | 3 | 1.15 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| NJD T. Meier | 2.9 | 4 | 0.76 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 2.9 | 3 | 0.86 | 3 | 37% | 1 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.6 | 2 | 0.65 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.5 | 1 | 0.71 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.4 | 1 | 0.99 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.3 | 5 | 0.67 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.2 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 2.1 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.1 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.1 | 4 | 0.71 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.1 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.8 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.8 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.6 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 9 | 0.42 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.4 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.4 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.2 | 3 | 0.33 | 2 | 16% | 2 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.2 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.7 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD K. MacDermid | 0.4 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BUF D. Gilbert | 0.4 | 0 | 0.11 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.