CAR beat NJD 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.60 expected goals to 2.74. J. Hughes led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Gostisbehere had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. P. Kochetkov stopped 24 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| CAR | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
- 2nd 1:16NJDJ. Hughes0.17 xG
- 2nd 10:55CARS. Jarvis0.16 xG
- 2nd 19:23CARS. Gostisbehere0.06 xG
- 3rd 10:16CARJ. Blake0.10 xG
- 3rd 15:16NJDN. HischierPP0.14 xG
- 3rd 18:24CARS. AhoEN0.87 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 2.74 xGCAR 4.60 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hughes | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:55 | 3:45 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:27 | 3:18 |
| N. Hischier | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:26 | 3:33 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 18:50 | 1:12 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 15:08 | 3:22 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:35 | 1:03 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:55 | 1:00 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:44 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:14 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:15 | 0:15 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 9:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:35 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 23:57 | 3:41 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:50 | 0:00 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:15 | 0:17 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:19 | 0:00 |
| S. Casey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:57 | 1:21 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 59:28 | Loss |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:40 | 1:47 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:08 | 1:49 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:43 | 0:13 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:05 | 1:45 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:08 | 1:44 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 10:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 | 0:15 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:22 | 0:11 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23:52 | 0:16 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:35 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:52 | 1:08 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 22:13 | 0:46 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:06 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:16 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 60:00 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 2.5, CAR 3.8 | NJD 2, CAR 4 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 24.9, CAR 34.4 | NJD 26, CAR 31 |
| Win chance | CAR 69% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.7 | 3 | 0.91 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.0 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 3.0 | 0 | 0.72 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 3.0 | 3 | 1.11 | 1 | 39% | 1 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.9 | 1 | 0.92 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.6 | 4 | 0.74 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.5 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.5 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.5 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.2 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.9 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.9 | 6 | 0.65 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.9 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.9 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.8 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.8 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.7 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.7 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.7 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.6 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.5 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.2 | 4 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD S. Casey | 0.7 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.