CAR beat NJD 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.79 expected goals to 2.16. CAR outshot NJD 41 to 23. J. Roslovic led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. Hischier had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. D. Tokarski stopped 21 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| CAR | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
- 2nd 2:56NJDP. Cotter0.20 xG
- 2nd 19:30CARD. Orlov0.04 xG
- 3rd 1:05NJDO. Palat0.15 xG
- 3rd 1:56CARS. Aho0.06 xG
- 3rd 10:43CARJ. BlakePP0.10 xG
- 3rd 12:06CARJ. Roslovic0.19 xG
- 3rd 16:38CARJ. RoslovicEN0.95 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 2.16 xGCAR 4.79 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:46 | 2:05 |
| O. Palat | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 16:02 | 1:12 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:51 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 2 | 25:38 | 2:59 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:56 | 2:13 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:16 | 1:46 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 14:13 | 1:34 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:40 | 2:05 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:10 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:31 | 0:10 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:10 | 0:10 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 8:48 | 0:12 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:44 | 2:02 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:08 | 0:22 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:17 | 1:58 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:01 | 0:11 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:51 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Allen | 40 | 36 | 4 | .900 | 59:14 | Loss |
| J. Markstrom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 21:16 | 5:08 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:26 | 1:20 |
| S. Aho | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 22:40 | 5:08 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:27 | 1:40 |
| J. Blake | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | 1:40 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:02 | 5:17 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:42 | 5:08 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:12 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:32 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:21 | 1:20 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:57 | 0:12 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:16 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:23 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:10 | 1:09 |
| D. Orlov | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 20:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 22:50 | 0:23 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:33 | 0:00 |
| T. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:23 | 5:28 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tokarski | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 59:41 | Win |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 3.0, CAR 3.3 | NJD 2, CAR 5 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 26.1, CAR 29.4 | NJD 23, CAR 41 |
| Win chance | CAR 56% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.1 | 4 | 0.96 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 2.5 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.3 | 3 | 0.72 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.3 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.2 | 6 | 0.79 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.2 | 5 | 0.91 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.0 | 0 | 0.83 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.0 | 3 | 0.69 | 3 | 28% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 1.9 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 1.9 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.8 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR T. Smith | 1.6 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.5 | 2 | 0.48 | 3 | 19% | 2 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.5 | 4 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.5 | 5 | 0.42 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.4 | 2 | 0.22 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.4 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.3 | 4 | 0.30 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.3 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.1 | 4 | 0.37 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CAR T. Jost | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.7 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.6 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.