Game Recap: NJD 1, CAR 4, April 20, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD1

FinalSun, Apr 20, 2025PlayoffsEvery game that night

CAR4

CAR beat NJD 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.39 expected goals to 1.72. CAR outshot NJD 45 to 24. L. Stankoven led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Svechnikov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. F. Andersen stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	0	1	0	1
CAR	1	2	1	4

1st 2:24CARJ. Chatfield0.01 xG
2nd 6:37CARL. Stankoven0.17 xG
2nd 13:08CARL. StankovenPP0.10 xG
2nd 18:51NJDN. Hischier0.04 xG
3rd 17:32CARA. SvechnikovEN0.91 xG

Team Stats

NJDCAR

24Shots on goal45

1.72Expected goals4.39

59Shot attempts76

215v5 shots on goal31

0/2Power play1/3

52Hits41

13Blocked shots16

6Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways12

2Takeaways0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 1.72 xGCAR 4.39 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD24 on goal, 1 scored

CAR42 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	1	0	1	3	1	3	-1	0	20:20	3:04
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	3	2	1	-1	0	19:42	2:48
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	2	19:18	2:36
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	17:27	0:43
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	2	6	1	-1	4	16:56	2:51
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	15:12	1:10
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	13:04	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	12:30	0:57
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	11:17	0:00
D. Sprong	RW	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	11:07	0:43
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	10:36	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	9:04	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	23:07	0:49
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	24:50	0:01
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	22:20	1:20
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	20:52	1:35
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:05	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	8:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	44	41	3	.932	59:46	Loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Stankoven	C	2	0	2	4	0	0	+1	0	14:53	2:05
T. Hall	LW	0	2	2	3	0	0	+1	0	12:51	2:11
J. Roslovic	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	15:12	2:01
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	0	1	5	1	1	+1	0	14:23	3:07
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	1	1	4	0	2	+1	0	14:08	2:10
J. Martinook	LW	0	1	1	3	3	2	+1	0	13:26	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	1	1	4	8	0	+1	0	12:20	0:02
S. Jarvis	RW	0	0	0	2	5	2	-1	0	19:28	3:22
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	3	4	2	-1	0	18:12	3:11
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	17:04	3:13
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	14:27	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	6	1	+1	0	12:46	0:02
J. Slavin	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	20:01	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+3	2	17:13	0:06
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	+2	0	20:41	0:02
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	20:11	2:01
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	18:52	3:22
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	17:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
P. Kochetkov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamStefan Noesen NJD Faces CAR, his team until May 20241 SOG
BirthdayShayne Gostisbehere CAR Turns 32 that day0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.7, CAR 3.3	NJD 1, CAR 4
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	NJD 23.4, CAR 30.1	NJD 24, CAR 45
Win chance	CAR 61%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD T. Meier	3.0	2	0.70	0	30%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.4	2	0.76	0	29%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.3	3	0.86	0	32%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.3	3	0.95	1	25%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.3	3	0.85	1	29%	1
CAR L. Stankoven	2.2	4	0.47	2	18%	2
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.1	5	0.64	1	24%	1
NJD D. Hamilton	2.0	2	0.48	0	10%	0
NJD D. Sprong	2.0	0	0.46	0	19%	0
NJD S. Noesen	2.0	1	0.51	0	21%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.0	2	0.49	0	21%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.0	4	0.26	0	7%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.9	3	0.58	2	22%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.8	1	0.47	0	22%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	0	0.60	0	10%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.7	1	0.40	0	17%	0
CAR D. Orlov	1.7	1	0.42	0	9%	0
CAR J. Roslovic	1.6	3	0.48	1	19%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.6	4	0.39	1	16%	0
CAR B. Burns	1.5	2	0.32	0	7%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	3	0.36	1	7%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	1	0.27	1	8%	1
NJD C. Glass	1.5	1	0.35	0	13%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.5	1	0.32	0	16%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.4	0	0.41	0	15%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.4	2	0.51	0	7%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.4	3	0.42	1	16%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.4	4	0.39	1	16%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.2	2	0.22	1	4%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.0	1	0.30	0	13%	0
NJD N. Bastian	0.9	2	0.22	0	11%	0
NJD P. Cotter	0.9	0	0.22	0	12%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.8	2	0.19	0	9%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.8	1	0.18	0	4%	0
NJD B. Dumoulin	0.7	0	0.23	0	4%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.6	0	0.20	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.