Game Recap: NJD 1, CAR 3, April 22, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

NJD1

FinalTue, Apr 22, 2025PlayoffsEvery game that night

CAR3

CAR beat NJD 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.02 expected goals to 3.49. J. Martinook led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Martinook had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. F. Andersen stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	1	0	0	1
CAR	0	2	1	3

1st 3:51NJDJ. Bratt0.37 xG
2nd 2:57CARS. Gostisbehere0.24 xG
2nd 5:54CARJ. MartinookSH0.07 xG
3rd 19:23CARS. JarvisEN0.79 xG

Team Stats

NJDCAR

26Shots on goal28

3.49Expected goals5.02

60Shot attempts69

185v5 shots on goal24

0/3Power play0/3

51Hits31

9Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways15

8Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.49 xGCAR 5.02 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD26 on goal, 1 scored

CAR28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Bratt	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-2	0	20:32	4:49
E. Haula	LW	0	1	1	1	6	0	0	0	14:21	0:00
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	-2	0	19:12	4:01
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	5	2	0	-2	2	18:03	4:43
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	2	6	0	-1	0	18:03	0:38
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	15:20	4:53
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	13:19	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	13:15	1:17
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	12:30	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	2	12:16	0:07
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	12:10	1:52
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	11:25	1:08
D. Hamilton	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	23:59	3:38
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	0	23:48	0:12
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	1	1	6	+1	0	23:14	0:20
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	0	7	0	-1	0	19:54	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	14:12	2:22
D. Cholowski	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	27	25	2	.926	59:15	Loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Martinook	LW	1	1	2	5	2	1	+2	0	14:36	0:00
S. Jarvis	RW	1	0	1	3	2	2	+1	0	21:08	4:20
S. Aho	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	20:27	3:53
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	2	17:48	3:54
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	16:00	3:55
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:35	2:05
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:26	2:07
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	3	2	3	+1	2	13:39	0:08
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	2	5	2	0	0	13:18	1:33
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	12:11	1:28
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	11:09	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:17	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	+1	0	19:51	4:24
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	19:15	0:23
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	22:57	0:14
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	20:45	1:23
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	16:20	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	15:45	0:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	26	25	1	.962	59:33	Win
P. Kochetkov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamStefan Noesen NJD Faces CAR, his team until May 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.6, CAR 3.4	NJD 1, CAR 3
Total goals	6.0	4
Shots on goal	NJD 23.2, CAR 31.0	NJD 26, CAR 28
Win chance	CAR 62%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD T. Meier	2.9	5	0.67	0	30%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.5	3	0.77	1	29%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.4	0	0.86	1	32%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.3	3	0.93	1	25%	1
CAR L. Stankoven	2.3	1	0.49	0	19%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.3	3	0.84	0	29%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.1	0	0.64	0	24%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.1	1	0.48	1	10%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.0	0	0.49	1	21%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.0	1	0.25	0	7%	0
NJD S. Noesen	2.0	2	0.49	0	21%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.9	2	0.57	0	21%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.8	2	0.46	0	22%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.7	1	0.39	1	17%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	2	0.59	1	10%	1
CAR D. Orlov	1.7	1	0.41	1	9%	0
CAR J. Roslovic	1.7	3	0.49	0	19%	0
CAR B. Burns	1.7	0	0.34	0	8%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.6	2	0.38	0	16%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	1	0.37	0	7%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.5	2	0.40	0	16%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.5	1	0.31	0	16%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	1	0.27	0	9%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.4	5	0.42	2	16%	1
CAR J. Staal	1.4	3	0.41	0	15%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.4	2	0.32	0	12%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.2	1	0.23	0	4%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.0	1	0.30	0	13%	0
NJD T. Tatar	1.0	0	0.29	0	13%	0
NJD P. Cotter	0.9	2	0.23	0	12%	0
NJD N. Bastian	0.9	1	0.21	0	10%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.8	2	0.18	0	8%	0
NJD S. Nemec	0.8	0	0.17	0	4%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.8	0	0.17	0	3%	0
NJD B. Dumoulin	0.8	0	0.23	0	4%	0
NJD D. Cholowski	0.6	0	0.19	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.