Game Recap: NJD 4, CAR 5 (OT), April 29, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

NJD4

Final/OTTue, Apr 29, 2025PlayoffsEvery game that night

CAR5

CAR beat NJD 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 5.04 expected goals to 2.41. CAR outshot NJD 54 to 35. S. Aho led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Svechnikov had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. P. Kochetkov stopped 31 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	2OT	T
NJD	3	1	0	0	0	4
CAR	0	4	0	0	1	5

1st 3:46NJDD. Mercer0.14 xG
1st 5:31NJDT. Meier0.14 xG
1st 9:55NJDS. Noesen0.11 xG
2nd 1:46CART. Hall0.39 xG
2nd 4:01CARJ. Blake0.10 xG
2nd 5:40CARA. Svechnikov0.03 xG
2nd 7:26NJDN. Hischier0.09 xG
2nd 11:27CARS. AhoPP0.21 xG
2OT 4:17CARS. AhoPP0.10 xG

Team Stats

NJDCAR

35Shots on goal54

2.41Expected goals5.04

50Shot attempts111

295v5 shots on goal37

0/3Power play2/6

39Hits46

25Blocked shots9

12Penalty minutes6

9Giveaways21

1Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 2.41 xGCAR 5.04 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD34 on goal, 4 scored

CAR52 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Noesen	RW	1	1	2	1	1	0	+2	0	17:17	2:48
N. Hischier	C	1	0	1	4	3	1	+1	0	31:02	3:42
T. Meier	RW	1	0	1	5	7	3	+1	0	24:59	3:13
D. Mercer	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	-2	6	24:25	3:13
P. Cotter	LW	0	1	1	2	9	0	+1	0	16:07	0:00
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	6	1	3	-1	0	27:59	3:13
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	+2	0	24:33	2:47
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	2	23:51	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	18:10	0:00
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	2	13:07	2:18
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	12:46	0:00
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:42	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	2	2	2	0	4	+1	0	32:17	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	27:57	2:46
D. Hamilton	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	26:27	2:31
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	37:19	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	2	4	3	-1	0	32:27	0:00
S. Casey	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	9:13	3:29

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	54	49	5	.907	84:07	Loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	2	1	3	7	5	0	-1	0	29:10	7:10
S. Jarvis	RW	0	2	2	3	5	0	-1	2	29:18	6:35
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	0	1	9	5	0	0	0	26:25	6:49
J. Blake	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	2	25:53	6:50
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	20:08	3:28
T. Hall	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	19:32	3:22
M. Jankowski	LW	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	14:20	0:36
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	2	10	0	-1	0	23:07	0:03
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	0	23:06	0:21
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:05	2:09
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	2	12:58	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	+1	0	11:26	0:03
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	2	2	3	0	1	0	0	25:09	8:24
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	2	3	0	-1	0	30:09	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	1	1	7	0	1	0	0	29:18	0:39
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	29:47	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	27:33	1:58
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	20:01	2:38

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	35	31	4	.886	84:17	Win
S. Martin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamStefan Noesen NJD Faces CAR, his team until May 20241 G, 1 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.7, CAR 3.4	NJD 4, CAR 5
Total goals	6.1	9
Shots on goal	NJD 23.6, CAR 30.7	NJD 35, CAR 54
Win chance	CAR 62%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD T. Meier	3.2	5	0.71	1	31%	1
CAR S. Jarvis	2.6	3	0.83	2	31%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.5	6	0.97	0	26%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.5	4	0.87	1	31%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.5	7	0.92	3	33%	2
NJD D. Hamilton	2.4	2	0.54	1	12%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.3	3	0.48	1	19%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.3	9	0.69	1	26%	1
CAR J. Blake	2.2	3	0.54	1	21%	1
CAR S. Walker	1.9	2	0.23	0	7%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.9	1	0.46	2	20%	1
CAR B. Burns	1.9	3	0.41	0	10%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.9	3	0.56	1	21%	1
NJD D. Mercer	1.8	1	0.46	1	23%	1
NJD E. Haula	1.8	2	0.38	0	17%	0
CAR D. Orlov	1.7	2	0.42	1	9%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	3	0.59	2	11%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.7	7	0.40	1	8%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.6	2	0.37	0	15%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	0	0.28	0	9%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.5	2	0.45	0	17%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.5	0	0.39	0	16%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	2	0.42	0	16%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.5	3	0.30	0	16%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.4	1	0.32	0	12%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.3	2	0.24	2	5%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.3	0	0.34	1	18%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.2	2	0.37	0	15%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	2	0.25	1	14%	0
NJD T. Tatar	0.9	2	0.26	0	12%	0
NJD N. Bastian	0.9	1	0.20	0	10%	0
NJD S. Nemec	0.9	1	0.19	1	4%	0
NJD B. Dumoulin	0.9	1	0.26	0	4%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.8	0	0.16	0	8%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.8	2	0.14	0	3%	0
NJD S. Casey	0.7	0	0.33	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.8 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.