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Game Recap
NJD3
FinalThu, Oct 9, 2025Every game that night
CAR6

CAR beat NJD 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.46 expected goals to 1.92. CAR outshot NJD 33 to 22. K. Miller led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Blake had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. F. Andersen stopped 19 of 22.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NJD0213
CAR1146
  1. 1st 4:06CART. Hall0.08 xG
  2. 2nd 8:15NJDD. Hamilton0.08 xG
  3. 2nd 9:23CARK. Miller0.05 xG
  4. 2nd 13:54NJDC. Glass0.13 xG
  5. 3rd 10:21CARK. MillerPP0.09 xG
  6. 3rd 11:38NJDJ. Bratt0.12 xG
  7. 3rd 17:17CARS. Jarvis0.10 xG
  8. 3rd 19:05CARS. JarvisEN0.59 xG
  9. 3rd 19:47CARE. Robinson0.07 xG

Team Stats

NJDCAR
22Shots on goal33
1.92Expected goals4.46
44Shot attempts73
185v5 shots on goal25
0/2Power play1/4
25Hits27
19Blocked shots13
6Penalty minutes4
27Giveaways20
4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 1.92 xGCAR 4.46 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdCAR goal, 4:06NJD goal, 8:15CAR goal, 9:23NJD goal, 13:54CAR goal, 10:21NJD goal, 11:38CAR goal, 17:17CAR goal, 19:05CAR goal, 19:47

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD21 on goal, 3 scored
CAR33 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. BrattLW1121300018:150:56
J. HughesC0111000021:541:32
C. GlassC1012210011:530:02
T. MeierRW000560-1019:371:34
N. HischierC000105-2018:421:27
D. MercerC000210-2017:351:24
C. BrownRW000120+1014:100:00
O. PalatLW0000110012:161:02
P. CotterLW000131-1411:540:00
L. GlendeningC000002-1010:220:00
A. GritsyukRW000010-209:520:00
E. DadonovLW000202009:321:07
L. HughesD0222210220:461:21
B. PesceD0110030021:420:00
D. HamiltonD1012300020:441:28
J. SiegenthalerD0000010019:000:00
S. NemecD000100-2018:350:35
B. DillonD000112-1016:500:07
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Markstrom32275.84459:05Loss
J. Allen000–0:00

CAR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. AhoC0223200021:394:51
S. JarvisRW202320+1021:124:24
T. HallLW112201+1012:161:01
J. BlakeRW011500-2015:401:21
J. MartinookLW011310+2013:120:00
W. CarrierLW011020+1011:070:00
E. RobinsonLW101220+2010:080:00
J. KotkaniemiC011011+209:460:00
N. EhlersLW0002200019:354:38
A. SvechnikovRW000420-1017:024:28
L. StankovenC000200-2015:031:23
J. StaalC000020+2213:350:00
S. GostisbehereD022111+3020:084:28
K. MillerD202421+1219:091:09
A. NikishinD011132+3015:340:00
S. WalkerD000033-2021:141:22
J. SlavinD000003-1020:160:00
J. ChatfieldD0001210019:250:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
F. Andersen22193.86459:59Win
B. Bussi000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1T. Meier16:45N. Hischier14:09D. Mercer13:21
Line 2J. Bratt14:40J. Hughes17:40E. Dadonov8:25
Line 3P. Cotter11:47A. Gritsyuk9:46L. Glendening7:09
Line 4C. Brown10:55C. Glass11:50O. Palat11:14
Pair 1L. Hughes17:27B. Pesce17:00
Pair 2D. Hamilton17:22J. Siegenthaler17:04
Pair 3B. Dillon12:19S. Nemec17:12

CAR

Line 1S. Aho14:39S. Jarvis13:52N. Ehlers14:33
Line 2L. Stankoven13:23J. Blake14:13A. Svechnikov11:59
Line 3J. Staal12:30J. Martinook11:24W. Carrier10:39
Line 4E. Robinson9:31J. Kotkaniemi9:17T. Hall11:14
Pair 1J. Chatfield17:56K. Miller17:13
Pair 2S. Gostisbehere14:54A. Nikishin15:34
Pair 3J. Slavin16:46S. Walker16:28

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNJD 2.5, CAR 3.3NJD 3, CAR 6
Total goals5.89
Shots on goalNJD 23.0, CAR 30.9NJD 22, CAR 33
Win chanceCAR 62%CAR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD J. Hughes3.410.97132%0
NJD T. Meier3.350.77033%0
CAR N. Ehlers2.720.78028%0
CAR S. Aho2.730.96235%0
NJD J. Bratt2.610.98227%1
NJD N. Hischier2.510.88032%0
CAR S. Jarvis2.530.81230%2
CAR A. Svechnikov2.540.79029%0
NJD D. Hamilton2.420.55112%1
CAR L. Stankoven2.120.46019%0
CAR S. Walker1.900.2507%0
CAR J. Slavin1.900.4008%0
NJD D. Mercer1.820.49024%0
CAR J. Blake1.850.47120%0
CAR T. Hall1.820.48219%1
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.710.58210%0
CAR J. Staal1.500.41016%0
NJD C. Glass1.520.33112%1
NJD L. Hughes1.520.4927%0
NJD C. Brown1.510.36013%0
CAR K. Miller1.440.4029%2
CAR J. Chatfield1.410.2609%0
CAR J. Martinook1.430.44117%0
CAR W. Carrier1.400.25114%0
NJD B. Pesce1.400.2715%0
NJD O. Palat1.300.43017%0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi1.300.35113%0
CAR E. Robinson1.220.28112%1
NJD P. Cotter1.110.26014%0
NJD E. Dadonov1.020.31013%0
NJD S. Nemec1.010.2305%0
NJD J. Siegenthaler0.900.1603%0
NJD L. Glendening0.500.1006%0
NJD B. Dillon0.510.1703%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.