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Game Recap
NJD2
CAR5
CAR beat NJD 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.77 expected goals to 2.27. CAR outshot NJD 34 to 19. S. Gostisbehere led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). L. Stankoven had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. B. Bussi stopped 17 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| CAR | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 17:06NJDT. Meier0.14 xG
- 2nd 10:10CARN. EhlersPP0.09 xG
- 2nd 13:48CARJ. Blake0.16 xG
- 2nd 15:13CARJ. Staal0.06 xG
- 3rd 15:25CARS. Gostisbehere0.10 xG
- 3rd 17:40CARS. JarvisEN0.92 xG
- 3rd 19:36NJDE. Dadonov0.08 xG
Team Stats
NJDCAR
19Shots on goal34
2.27Expected goals4.77
42Shot attempts70
145v5 shots on goal31
0/3Power play1/1
26Hits12
15Blocked shots9
2Penalty minutes6
17Giveaways21
4Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 2.27 xGCAR 4.77 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:12 | 4:07 |
| T. Meier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:05 | 3:34 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:49 | 1:44 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:12 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:17 | 4:04 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:01 | 3:56 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:15 | 3:53 |
| L. Hameenaho | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 13:28 | 1:46 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:12 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:26 | 0:11 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:21 | 0:08 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:19 | 0:09 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:18 | 0:23 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:20 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:21 | 3:39 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:46 | 2:00 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:21 | 0:00 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:13 | 1:30 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 33 | 29 | 4 | .879 | 58:09 | Loss |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Ehlers | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:35 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:25 | 0:33 |
| J. Staal | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17:59 | 1:06 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:56 | 1:10 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:44 | 1:10 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:37 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:41 | 1:08 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:33 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:53 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:49 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:02 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:42 | 1:21 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:13 | 0:22 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:09 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Bussi | 19 | 17 | 2 | .895 | 60:00 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NJD
Line 2N. Hischier13:58D. Mercer14:57T. Meier14:31
Line 3C. Glass11:28L. Hameenaho11:39E. Dadonov12:21
Line 4N. Bjugstad9:10M. Tsyplakov9:13P. Cotter10:15
Pair 1J. Kovacevic17:55L. Hughes19:39
Pair 2D. Hamilton18:02J. Siegenthaler18:38
CAR
Line 1S. Aho14:35S. Jarvis14:54A. Svechnikov15:33
Line 2J. Staal14:41J. Martinook13:50N. Ehlers14:29
Line 3T. Hall13:52L. Stankoven14:03J. Blake13:06
Line 4M. Jankowski9:02E. Robinson9:26W. Carrier8:59
Pair 2J. Slavin18:09J. Chatfield16:34
Pair 3S. Gostisbehere16:09A. Nikishin15:48
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 2.7, CAR 3.3 | NJD 2, CAR 5 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 25.1, CAR 30.9 | NJD 19, CAR 34 |
| Win chance | CAR 60% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.3 | 3 | 1.09 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.0 | 3 | 0.59 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.7 | 3 | 0.81 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.4 | 2 | 0.79 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.4 | 3 | 0.93 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.2 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.2 | 5 | 0.76 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.2 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.1 | 3 | 0.30 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.0 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 1.9 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 1.9 | 6 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.8 | 4 | 0.57 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.7 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD C. Brown | 1.6 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.6 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.6 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.6 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.5 | 2 | 0.53 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.4 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.3 | 3 | 0.37 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hameenaho | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD E. Dadonov | 1.0 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| NJD N. Bjugstad | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD M. Tsyplakov | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.6 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.5 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.