CGY beat NJD 3-0, with the chances close: 1.62 expected goals to 1.80. CGY outshot NJD 32 to 22. B. Coleman led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). B. Pesce had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. D. Vladar stopped 22 of 22.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 1.80 xGCGY 1.62 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:06 | 3:54 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 20:23 | 3:29 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:25 | 2:35 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:47 | 2:47 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:12 | 3:11 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:02 | 3:05 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:03 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:05 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:35 | 2:02 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:07 | 2:19 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:28 | 0:12 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 3:29 | 0:00 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:57 | 0:07 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:53 | 3:34 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:46 | 0:05 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:46 | 0:13 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:56 | 2:17 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 16:53 | 0:02 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 58:24 | Loss |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Coleman | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 15:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:04 | 4:10 |
| A. Mantha | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 14:06 | 3:43 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:35 | 4:16 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:33 | 3:38 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:57 | 3:46 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 4:03 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:06 | 2:12 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:00 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:34 | 0:04 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:25 | 2:05 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7:39 | 0:02 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 25:35 | 3:44 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:42 | 0:04 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:32 | 4:33 |
| T. Barrie | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:36 | 3:22 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:18 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 3.4, CGY 3.4 | NJD 0, CGY 3 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 29.7, CGY 30.6 | NJD 22, CGY 32 |
| Win chance | NJD 50% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.7 | 4 | 1.10 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.3 | 3 | 0.90 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 2.9 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.8 | 1 | 1.00 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.5 | 2 | 0.88 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.5 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.4 | 4 | 0.61 | 2 | 26% | 2 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.4 | 4 | 0.60 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.4 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.2 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.9 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.8 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.8 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.8 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.7 | 1 | 0.77 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.7 | 2 | 0.77 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.7 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.6 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 1.5 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY T. Barrie | 1.5 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY A. Mantha | 1.4 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.4 | 4 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.4 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.4 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 1.0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.8 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.8 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.