Game Recap: NJD 2, CGY 1 (OT), January 19, 2026

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Game Recap

NJD2

Final/OTMon, Jan 19, 2026Every game that night

CGY1

NJD beat CGY 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.14 expected goals to 1.88. NJD outshot CGY 32 to 22. J. Hughes had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.8. J. Markstrom stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NJD	0	1	0	1	2
CGY	0	1	0	0	1

2nd 7:51NJDD. Mercer0.07 xG
2nd 9:44CGYN. Kadri0.09 xG
OT 1:18NJDS. Nemec0.29 xG

Team Stats

NJDCGY

32Shots on goal22

2.14Expected goals1.88

54Shot attempts46

245v5 shots on goal17

0/2Power play0/4

16Hits22

11Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways17

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 2.14 xGCGY 1.88 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD32 on goal, 2 scored

CGY22 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Mercer	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	20:50	0:08
J. Hughes	C	0	1	1	7	0	1	+1	0	20:41	1:11
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	16:22	1:04
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	19:12	1:05
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:09	0:06
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:21	0:00
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	14:00	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	13:08	0:00
L. Hameenaho	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	12:38	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:46	0:50
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	9:17	0:00
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:06	0:00
S. Nemec	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	23:14	0:11
D. Hamilton	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	2	21:34	1:02
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	1	1	1	4	3	+1	2	20:37	0:07
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	23:28	0:10
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	22:06	0:01
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	22	21	1	.955	61:12	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kadri	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	2	17:58	2:28
M. Gridin	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:54	2:25
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	-1	0	17:23	2:22
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	17:18	2:46
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	2	17:04	2:24
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:02	2:22
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	16:49	2:29
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:44	0:00
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:55	2:46
J. Kirkland	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:58	0:02
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:10	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	9:55	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	1	1	0	4	1	0	0	23:28	0:36
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	22:33	0:16
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	22:23	2:07
Y. Kuznetsov	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:30	0:18
H. Brzustewicz	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:58	2:34
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Cooley	32	30	2	.938	61:18	OT loss
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1J. Hughes17:31T. Meier15:18J. Bratt13:10

Line 2O. Palat13:18D. Mercer15:44N. Hischier14:08

Line 3A. Gritsyuk13:16L. Hameenaho12:32C. Glass11:25

Line 4C. Brown9:21P. Cotter9:17E. Dadonov7:06

Pair 1B. Dillon18:54S. Nemec20:29

Pair 2D. Hamilton17:41J. Siegenthaler18:12

Pair 3B. Pesce17:26L. Hughes8:47

CGY

Line 1N. Kadri13:28C. Zary14:13M. Gridin12:23

Line 2Y. Sharangovich13:55M. Coronato13:33M. Backlund13:16

Line 3M. Frost12:26J. Farabee13:51J. Huberdeau13:15

Line 4J. Kirkland11:42R. Lomberg10:10A. Klapka9:55

Pair 1Z. Whitecloud20:28K. Bahl21:03

Pair 2M. Weegar16:54Y. Kuznetsov16:59

Pair 3J. Hanley12:46H. Brzustewicz13:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSimon Nemec CGY First game against NJD since he left (his team until Apr 2026)1 G, 2 SOG
Old teamKevin Bahl CGY Faces NJD, his team until Apr 20241 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.0, CGY 3.1	NJD 2, CGY 1
Total goals	6.0	3
Shots on goal	NJD 29.1, CGY 29.4	NJD 32, CGY 22
Win chance	CGY 52%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.8	7	1.04	1	35%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.3	2	0.64	0	29%	0
CGY N. Kadri	2.9	2	0.78	1	28%	1
NJD N. Hischier	2.6	1	0.80	0	29%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.6	1	0.46	1	12%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.5	4	0.58	0	21%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.3	0	0.79	1	23%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.2	1	0.47	0	9%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.2	5	0.39	0	16%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.1	0	0.54	0	22%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.9	1	0.42	0	19%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.9	0	0.52	0	9%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.9	3	0.53	0	24%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.9	1	0.47	1	21%	1
CGY M. Gridin	1.8	1	0.35	1	17%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.8	1	0.49	0	20%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.6	3	0.35	0	15%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.6	1	0.43	0	15%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.6	2	0.63	0	21%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.5	2	0.38	1	10%	1
NJD C. Brown	1.5	2	0.38	0	15%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.3	1	0.33	0	16%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.3	3	0.22	0	4%	0
NJD E. Dadonov	1.2	0	0.34	0	14%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	1.2	0	0.27	0	8%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.1	0	0.25	1	5%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.0	0	0.27	0	12%	0
CGY H. Brzustewicz	1.0	2	0.13	0	3%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.9	1	0.14	1	3%	0
CGY Z. Whitecloud	0.9	2	0.21	0	6%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	0	0.16	0	8%	0
NJD P. Cotter	0.8	1	0.19	0	11%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	1	0.18	0	4%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	0	0.13	0	2%	0
CGY J. Kirkland	0.6	1	0.23	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.