Game Recap: NJD 5, CHI 3, March 26, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD5

FinalWed, Mar 26, 2025Every game that night

CHI3

NJD beat CHI 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.51 expected goals to 1.65. L. Hughes led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). F. Nazar had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Markstrom stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	2	2	1	5
CHI	1	1	1	3

1st 6:23NJDN. Bastian0.29 xG
1st 6:50NJDD. MercerPP0.15 xG
1st 9:06CHIT. BertuzziPP0.13 xG
2nd 3:14NJDO. PalatSH0.04 xG
2nd 5:26CHII. Mikheyev0.12 xG
2nd 11:01NJDD. MercerPP0.08 xG
3rd 17:10CHIF. Nazar0.24 xG
3rd 19:47NJDS. NoesenEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

NJDCHI

21Shots on goal24

3.51Expected goals1.65

50Shot attempts49

165v5 shots on goal17

2/2Power play1/2

29Hits16

14Blocked shots10

4Penalty minutes4

10Giveaways19

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.51 xGCHI 1.65 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD21 on goal, 5 scored

CHI24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	0	2	2	1	1	2	0	0	19:09	0:29
D. Mercer	C	2	0	2	4	4	1	-1	0	15:20	0:29
J. Bratt	LW	0	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	14:49	0:29
O. Palat	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	15:10	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	1	0	1	2	6	0	+1	0	14:02	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	1	0	1	2	2	2	+1	0	13:50	0:00
T. Tatar	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	12:21	0:00
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	18:06	0:29
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	2	15:21	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	13:59	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	13:15	0:00
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:50	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	18:24	0:29
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	22:56	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	21:21	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	20:51	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+2	0	20:49	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	15:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	24	21	3	.875	60:00	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Donato	C	0	2	2	2	1	0	-1	0	21:56	1:35
F. Nazar	C	1	0	1	4	0	2	-1	0	21:10	0:53
T. Teravainen	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	19:43	1:16
I. Mikheyev	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	17:44	0:32
T. Bertuzzi	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:30	1:14
N. Foligno	LW	0	1	1	1	5	0	+1	0	14:55	0:00
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	23:12	1:33
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:46	0:00
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:24	0:00
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	10:40	0:34
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	10:04	0:00
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	2	9:34	0:46
A. Levshunov	D	0	2	2	1	1	1	-2	0	24:04	1:35
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	21:49	0:32
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	20:14	0:05
E. Del Mastro	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	19:36	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:19	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	13:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	20	16	4	.800	57:05	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.4, CHI 2.7	NJD 5, CHI 3
Total goals	6.1	8
Shots on goal	NJD 29.6, CHI 24.7	NJD 21, CHI 24
Win chance	NJD 60%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD T. Meier	3.3	2	0.86	0	36%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.8	1	1.05	2	35%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.6	0	1.22	2	31%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.3	2	0.70	2	26%	0
NJD S. Noesen	2.1	2	0.59	1	24%	1
CHI C. Bedard	2.1	2	0.71	0	24%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.7	0	0.42	0	19%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.7	1	0.69	3	10%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.7	4	0.44	1	21%	1
NJD D. Mercer	1.7	4	0.50	2	24%	2
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.5	1	0.55	1	23%	1
NJD B. Pesce	1.5	2	0.31	0	7%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.4	1	0.71	1	22%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.4	4	0.38	1	16%	1
NJD O. Palat	1.3	1	0.45	1	18%	1
CHI A. Levshunov	1.3	1	0.29	2	6%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.3	1	0.39	1	15%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.2	1	0.32	0	5%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.2	3	0.23	0	6%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	0	0.22	0	6%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	1	0.30	0	16%	0
NJD T. Tatar	1.1	0	0.33	1	14%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	1.1	0	0.21	0	11%	0
CHI J. Veleno	1.0	0	0.26	0	13%	0
CHI P. Maroon	1.0	2	0.27	0	9%	0
CHI E. Mastro	0.9	0	0.23	0	7%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.9	0	0.26	0	5%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.9	0	0.15	0	6%	0
CHI L. Reichel	0.9	2	0.27	0	10%	0
NJD N. Bastian	0.9	2	0.23	1	11%	1
CHI P. Kurashev	0.9	0	0.30	0	11%	0
NJD B. Dumoulin	0.8	2	0.28	0	4%	0
NJD C. Lazar	0.8	1	0.22	0	9%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.8	0	0.19	0	10%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	1	0.26	0	5%	0
NJD S. Nemec	0.7	1	0.19	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.