COL beat NJD 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.26 expected goals to 1.95. COL outshot NJD 37 to 23. N. MacKinnon led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. MacKinnon had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.9. M. Blackwood stopped 22 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| COL | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
- 1st 8:54COLA. Lehkonen0.15 xG
- 3rd 2:57COLN. MacKinnonPP0.34 xG
- 3rd 8:28NJDJ. Hughes0.15 xG
- 3rd 14:14COLN. MacKinnonPP0.48 xG
- 3rd 16:40COLC. Mittelstadt0.08 xG
- 3rd 18:18COLL. O'Connor0.07 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 1.95 xGCOL 4.26 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hughes | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 19:59 | 2:27 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:38 | 2:21 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:32 | 1:52 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:40 | 1:59 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 | 1:39 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:51 | 2:17 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:15 | 1:39 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:05 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:02 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:41 | 1:26 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:09 | 0:04 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:35 | 0:00 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:45 | 1:59 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:58 | 0:00 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 22:20 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:15 | 2:03 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:40 | 0:07 |
| S. Casey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:38 | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:08 | 4:15 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:12 | 4:17 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:41 | 2:17 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:55 | 3:58 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:53 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:29 | 1:07 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:21 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:59 | 0:00 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 2:03 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:59 | 4:13 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:22 | 0:40 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:01 | 0:37 |
| O. Kylington | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:00 |
| C. de Haan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:35 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 2.7, COL 3.1 | NJD 1, COL 5 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 25.8, COL 28.7 | NJD 23, COL 37 |
| Win chance | COL 56% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.9 | 7 | 1.29 | 3 | 37% | 2 |
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.6 | 2 | 1.06 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| COL C. Makar | 3.2 | 4 | 1.04 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 3.0 | 2 | 0.92 | 3 | 30% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 2.7 | 5 | 0.64 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.5 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.5 | 5 | 0.76 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.5 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.3 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.2 | 2 | 0.91 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 2.1 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.9 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| COL M. Wood | 1.6 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.6 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.6 | 0 | 0.36 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.6 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.5 | 3 | 0.49 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.4 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL J. Drouin | 1.3 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 1.2 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| COL O. Kylington | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.0 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL C. Haan | 1.0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD S. Casey | 0.8 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.