Game Recap: NJD 4, COL 8, October 28, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD4

FinalTue, Oct 28, 2025Every game that night

COL8

COL beat NJD 8-4, and the chances backed it up: 3.71 expected goals to 2.84. COL outshot NJD 42 to 30. V. Olofsson scored three for COL. V. Olofsson had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. S. Wedgewood stopped 26 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	0	4	0	4
COL	2	4	2	8

1st 1:24COLM. NecasPP0.06 xG
1st 3:49COLZ. Bardakov0.03 xG
2nd 2:31COLV. Olofsson0.08 xG
2nd 7:11COLN. MacKinnonPP0.12 xG
2nd 8:39COLP. Kelly0.32 xG
2nd 10:08NJDS. Noesen0.12 xG
2nd 11:48NJDD. Hamilton0.07 xG
2nd 13:42NJDD. Mercer0.33 xG
2nd 14:12NJDJ. Hughes0.08 xG
2nd 15:24COLN. MacKinnonPP0.08 xG
3rd 3:10COLV. OlofssonPP0.09 xG
3rd 17:38COLV. Olofsson0.09 xG

Team Stats

NJDCOL

30Shots on goal42

2.84Expected goals3.71

63Shot attempts64

235v5 shots on goal31

0/2Power play4/6

26Hits17

10Blocked shots15

10Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways21

1Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 2.84 xGCOL 3.71 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD30 on goal, 4 scored

COL40 on goal, 8 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	17:41	3:05
N. Hischier	C	0	1	1	5	4	0	+1	0	19:15	3:01
D. Mercer	C	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	15:24	0:43
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	15:00	3:00
T. Meier	RW	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	2	14:41	2:59
P. Cotter	LW	0	1	1	0	6	0	-1	0	13:40	0:12
S. Noesen	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	-1	2	12:29	0:55
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:26	0:05
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:35	0:41
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	2	13:37	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	11:13	0:40
J. Lammikko	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:08	0:19
L. Hughes	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	+3	0	20:55	2:29
D. Hamilton	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+3	2	19:37	1:31
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	19:54	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	2	19:12	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	19:09	0:20
S. Casey	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	17:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	42	34	8	.810	59:48	Loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Olofsson	LW	3	2	5	7	0	0	-1	0	14:31	4:17
N. MacKinnon	C	2	1	3	5	2	0	-1	0	19:56	5:20
P. Kelly	C	1	1	2	3	2	3	+2	0	13:02	0:07
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	20:00	5:19
M. Necas	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	2	19:53	4:24
J. Drury	C	0	1	1	2	1	2	-1	0	14:59	0:02
R. Colton	C	0	1	1	3	2	1	+1	0	13:23	0:01
G. Landeskog	LW	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	0	12:50	1:01
G. Brindley	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	11:16	0:55
Z. Bardakov	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+2	0	8:38	0:05
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:32	2:57
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	16:22	0:57
C. Makar	D	0	4	4	4	1	1	0	0	25:13	5:11
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	18:33	0:11
J. Ahcan	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	13:19	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	23:29	1:13
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	2	16:47	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	16:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	30	26	4	.867	59:39	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1A. Gritsyuk14:54C. Brown14:27J. Lammikko10:49

Line 2S. Noesen11:34P. Cotter13:28L. Glendening11:18

Line 3J. Bratt11:21J. Hughes14:09O. Palat10:33

Line 4N. Hischier11:58T. Meier11:09D. Mercer11:09

Pair 1B. Dillon15:34S. Casey17:33

Pair 2J. Siegenthaler16:51S. Nemec16:38

Pair 3D. Hamilton15:15L. Hughes16:35

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon14:03M. Necas14:59A. Lehkonen14:19

Line 2B. Nelson14:20V. Nichushkin13:26R. Colton13:13

Line 3V. Olofsson10:14J. Drury12:03G. Landeskog11:49

Line 4P. Kelly10:00Z. Bardakov8:30G. Brindley9:57

Pair 1D. Toews18:55C. Makar16:44

Pair 2B. Burns17:28J. Manson16:04

Pair 3S. Malinski16:00J. Ahcan13:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.7, COL 3.6	NJD 4, COL 8
Total goals	6.3	12
Shots on goal	NJD 24.6, COL 31.3	NJD 30, COL 42
Win chance	COL 63%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.1	5	1.38	3	40%	2
NJD J. Hughes	3.5	2	0.99	2	35%	1
COL C. Makar	3.1	4	1.15	4	26%	0
NJD T. Meier	2.7	3	0.62	1	29%	0
COL M. Necas	2.6	2	0.93	1	30%	1
NJD D. Hamilton	2.5	2	0.58	1	13%	1
COL V. Nichushkin	2.5	0	0.73	1	33%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.3	5	0.81	1	30%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.2	3	0.70	0	30%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.1	1	0.72	0	31%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.1	1	0.82	1	23%	0
COL B. Burns	2.0	2	0.40	1	9%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.9	7	0.50	5	22%	3
COL G. Landeskog	1.8	1	0.63	1	26%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	1.8	2	0.39	0	13%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.7	1	0.49	1	23%	1
COL J. Manson	1.7	0	0.34	0	8%	0
COL D. Toews	1.6	1	0.55	0	11%	0
COL R. Colton	1.6	3	0.38	1	17%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.5	1	0.38	0	15%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.4	3	0.25	0	6%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.4	1	0.45	1	6%	0
COL J. Drury	1.4	2	0.29	1	12%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.4	4	0.35	1	16%	1
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	0	0.23	1	14%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.1	2	0.32	0	14%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.0	3	0.19	2	9%	1
NJD S. Nemec	0.9	2	0.25	0	4%	0
NJD J. Lammikko	0.9	1	0.19	0	10%	0
COL G. Brindley	0.8	3	0.16	1	10%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.8	0	0.15	0	3%	0
COL J. Ahcan	0.7	0	0.13	1	5%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.6	1	0.21	0	4%	0
NJD S. Casey	0.6	2	0.28	0	6%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.6	2	0.16	1	6%	1
NJD L. Glendening	0.6	0	0.11	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.