Game Recap: NJD 2, COL 5, October 28, 2026

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Game Recap

NJD2

FinalWed, Oct 28, 2026Every game that night

COL5

COL beat NJD 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.11 expected goals to 2.22. COL outshot NJD 44 to 22. C. Brown led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Makar had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. M. Blackwood stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	1	0	1	2
COL	0	1	4	5

1st 12:21NJDC. BrownSH0.07 xG
2nd 10:58COLG. LandeskogPP0.47 xG
3rd 2:45COLN. Kadri0.16 xG
3rd 3:47COLP. Kelly0.05 xG
3rd 12:00COLN. MacKinnon0.23 xG
3rd 12:30COLJ. Schwartz0.27 xG
3rd 15:35NJDC. Brown0.16 xG

Team Stats

NJDCOL

22Shots on goal44

2.22Expected goals4.11

44Shot attempts79

185v5 shots on goal37

0/3Power play1/2

17Hits11

14Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways20

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 2.22 xGCOL 4.11 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD22 on goal, 2 scored

COL44 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Brown	RW	2	0	2	2	0	0	+1	0	14:10	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	12:12	0:00
A. Lombardi	C	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	11:51	0:00
J. Hughes	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	20:37	4:03
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	17:28	3:46
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	16:55	3:39
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	16:45	3:22
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:24	1:26
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:03	1:43
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:06	1:48
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	13:52	1:57
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	10:54	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	23:38	3:24
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	20:23	0:11
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	19:19	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:23	0:56
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	17:10	1:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	16:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	44	39	5	.886	60:00	Loss
R. Poirier	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kadri	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	15:06	3:05
J. Schwartz	LW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	0	10:53	0:47
N. MacKinnon	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	19:00	2:24
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	18:33	0:52
P. Kelly	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	14:13	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	13:31	0:00
G. Landeskog	LW	1	0	1	1	1	1	-1	0	12:29	0:53
N. Roy	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	11:26	0:00
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	19:35	3:10
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	16:38	1:33
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	2	13:39	0:00
T. Hughes	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	13:09	3:04
S. Malinski	D	0	2	2	3	0	1	+3	0	21:11	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	2	2	4	2	4	+2	2	17:49	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0	24:42	0:48
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	6	0	0	-2	0	25:51	3:09
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+2	0	22:42	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	22	20	2	.909	59:27	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1J. Hughes16:08A. Gritsyuk14:03J. Bratt13:13

Line 2T. Meier12:03L. Evangelista13:28N. Hischier12:09

Line 3C. Brown12:20A. Lombardi11:51C. Glass10:27

Line 4A. Mantha11:37E. Rodrigues11:53J. Boqvist10:54

Pair 1B. Pesce17:22L. Hughes17:16

Pair 2B. Dillon16:06D. Chisholm16:10

Pair 3D. Hamilton15:06J. Siegenthaler18:09

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon15:43M. Necas15:47A. Lehkonen14:12

Line 2L. O'Connor12:41F. Svechkov13:31P. Kelly11:53

Line 3B. Nelson11:55G. Landeskog11:36N. Roy10:54

Line 4N. Kadri11:28T. Hughes10:05J. Schwartz10:06

Pair 1D. Toews19:28C. Makar19:58

Pair 2B. Burns16:26B. Kulak21:02

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 19 overs hit (53%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
NJD J. Hughes	3.5	+125	-135	2	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	3.5	-120	+102	2	Under
COL C. Makar	2.5	+110	-125	6	Over
NJD L. Hughes	2.5	+130	-160	0	Under
COL M. Necas	2.5	+130	-160	4	Over
NJD N. Hischier	2.5	+144	-170	3	Over
COL N. Kadri	2.5	+120	-145	2	Under
NJD T. Meier	2.5	-135	+112	1	Under
NJD A. Gritsyuk	1.5	-155	+135	1	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	1.5	-125	+115	2	Over
COL B. Burns	1.5	+135	-155	4	Over
COL B. Nelson	1.5	-135	+125	3	Over
NJD D. Hamilton	1.5	-190	+160	2	Over
COL D. Toews	1.5	-105	-140	4	Over
NJD E. Rodrigues	1.5	-110	-105	1	Under
COL G. Landeskog	1.5	-118	-110	1	Under
NJD J. Bratt	1.5	-150	+135	2	Over
NJD L. Evangelista	1.5	-165	+142	0	Under
COL S. Malinski	1.5	+110	-140	3	Over

6 of 34 overs hit (18%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NJD A. Gritsyuk	0.5	+360	-550	0	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+250	-320	0	Under
NJD A. Lombardi	0.5	+950	-1400	0	Under
NJD A. Mantha	0.5	+475	-700	0	Under
COL B. Burns	0.5	+1400	-2000	0	Under
NJD B. Dillon	0.5	+2400	-5000	0	Under
COL B. Kulak	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+280	-390	0	Under
NJD B. Pesce	0.5	+2500	-3500	0	Under
NJD C. Brown	0.5	+650	-800	2	Over
NJD C. Glass	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	+360	-550	0	Under
NJD D. Hamilton	0.5	+725	-1000	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
NJD E. Rodrigues	0.5	+475	-550	0	Under
COL F. Svechkov	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+320	-475	1	Over
NJD J. Boqvist	0.5	+650	-1000	0	Under
NJD J. Bratt	0.5	+340	-390	0	Under
NJD J. Hughes	0.5	+190	-210	0	Under
COL J. Manson	0.5	+1800	-3500	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+400	-700	1	Over
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.5	+2200	-5000	0	Under
NJD L. Evangelista	0.5	+340	-390	0	Under
NJD L. Hughes	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
COL L. O'Connor	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	+220	-270	0	Under
NJD N. Hischier	0.5	+240	-310	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+290	-370	1	Over
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	+130	-165	1	Over
COL N. Roy	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
COL P. Kelly	0.5	+650	-1000	1	Over
COL S. Malinski	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
NJD T. Meier	0.5	+300	-370	0	Under

5 of 19 overs hit (26%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NJD A. Gritsyuk	0.5	+255	-325	0	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+180	-205	1	Over
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+215	-275	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	-118	-105	0	Under
NJD D. Hamilton	0.5	+235	-275	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+190	-210	1	Over
NJD E. Rodrigues	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+240	-275	0	Under
NJD J. Bratt	0.5	+138	-155	0	Under
NJD J. Hughes	0.5	+110	-115	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+260	-330	1	Over
NJD L. Evangelista	0.5	+176	-220	0	Under
NJD L. Hughes	0.5	+150	-175	0	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	-106	-115	0	Under
NJD N. Hischier	0.5	+150	-180	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+200	-210	1	Over
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	-135	+115	0	Under
COL N. Roy	0.5	+295	-425	1	Over
NJD T. Meier	0.5	+230	-295	0	Under

6 of 19 overs hit (32%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
COL N. MacKinnon	1.5	+135	-170	1	Under
NJD A. Gritsyuk	0.5	+136	-160	0	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	-115	+100	1	Over
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+102	-120	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	-165	+145	0	Under
NJD D. Hamilton	0.5	+164	-200	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+148	-175	1	Over
NJD E. Rodrigues	0.5	+180	-220	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+124	-150	1	Over
NJD J. Bratt	0.5	-125	+105	0	Under
NJD J. Hughes	0.5	-190	+150	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+150	-180	2	Over
NJD L. Evangelista	0.5	+105	-130	0	Under
NJD L. Hughes	0.5	+105	-132	0	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	-210	+170	0	Under
NJD N. Hischier	0.5	-125	+110	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+100	-111	2	Over
COL N. Roy	0.5	+170	-235	1	Over
NJD T. Meier	0.5	+120	-145	0	Under

3 of 17 overs hit (18%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NJD A. Mantha	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	+150	-200	0	Under
NJD D. Hamilton	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
NJD E. Rodrigues	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+475	-625	1	Over
NJD J. Bratt	0.5	+270	-375	0	Under
NJD J. Hughes	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
NJD L. Evangelista	0.5	+390	-625	0	Under
NJD L. Hughes	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	+250	-290	0	Under
NJD N. Hischier	0.5	+310	-400	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+270	-375	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	+155	-210	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NJD J. Allen	26.5	+100	-115	39	Over
COL M. Blackwood	26.5	-102	-125	20	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
COL B. Kulak	1.5	-130	-110	0	Under
NJD B. Pesce	1.5	-195	+140	2	Over
NJD D. Hamilton	1.5	+105	-145	0	Under
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.5	-145	+100	3	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.8, COL 3.5	NJD 2, COL 5
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	NJD 27.7, COL 29.7	NJD 22, COL 44
Win chance	COL 62%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.8	2	1.41	1	41%	1
NJD J. Hughes	3.3	2	0.96	0	31%	0
NJD T. Meier	2.8	1	0.47	0	23%	0
COL C. Makar	2.4	6	0.98	0	22%	0
COL N. Kadri	2.4	2	0.70	2	26%	1
COL M. Necas	2.3	4	1.01	0	30%	0
NJD L. Evangelista	2.2	0	0.58	0	18%	0
COL T. Hughes	2.1	2	0.51	0	20%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.1	3	0.64	0	25%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.0	2	0.43	0	9%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.0	1	0.41	0	16%	0
NJD L. Hughes	2.0	0	0.54	0	10%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	1.9	2	0.71	1	30%	0
COL B. Nelson	1.9	3	0.65	0	29%	0
NJD J. Bratt	1.9	2	0.72	0	21%	0
COL G. Landeskog	1.9	1	0.62	1	25%	1
NJD E. Rodrigues	1.8	1	0.38	0	15%	0
COL J. Schwartz	1.7	3	0.54	2	22%	1
COL S. Malinski	1.7	3	0.38	2	7%	0
NJD A. Lombardi	1.5	4	0.24	1	9%	0
COL B. Burns	1.5	4	0.32	2	7%	0
NJD A. Mantha	1.4	2	0.46	0	19%	0
COL D. Toews	1.4	4	0.51	1	9%	0
COL J. Manson	1.3	0	0.32	0	6%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.3	0	0.26	1	13%	0
COL N. Roy	1.2	0	0.41	1	16%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.2	2	0.34	2	13%	2
COL P. Kelly	1.2	3	0.35	1	15%	1
COL B. Kulak	1.1	3	0.26	0	5%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.1	2	0.27	0	11%	0
NJD J. Boqvist	1.1	1	0.25	0	12%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.1	0	0.23	0	4%	0
COL F. Svechkov	1.0	0	0.32	1	12%	0
NJD D. Chisholm	0.7	0	0.16	0	3%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.6	1	0.18	0	2%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.5	0	0.14	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.