Game Recap: NJD 3, DET 5, October 24, 2024

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Game Recap

NJD3

FinalThu, Oct 24, 2024Every game that night

DET5

DET beat NJD 5-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.68 expected goals to 3.93. NJD outshot DET 40 to 20. N. Hischier led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). N. Hischier had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. C. Talbot stopped 37 of 40.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	1	1	1	3
DET	2	0	3	5

1st 12:11NJDN. HischierPP0.16 xG
1st 18:09DETC. Fischer0.18 xG
1st 18:34DETA. DeBrincat0.14 xG
2nd 4:59NJDE. HaulaPP0.10 xG
3rd 9:46DETD. LarkinPP0.09 xG
3rd 11:41NJDN. HischierPP0.15 xG
3rd 16:28DETP. KanePP0.08 xG
3rd 19:48DETM. RasmussenEN0.81 xG

Team Stats

NJDDET

40Shots on goal20

3.93Expected goals2.68

81Shot attempts48

325v5 shots on goal14

3/5Power play2/4

37Hits24

14Blocked shots16

18Penalty minutes22

9Giveaways10

12Takeaways10

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.93 xGDET 2.68 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD39 on goal, 3 scored

DET20 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	2	0	2	8	0	0	0	0	20:35	4:30
J. Hughes	C	0	1	1	8	0	0	-2	0	22:59	5:14
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	2	2	2	-1	0	19:51	5:17
T. Meier	RW	0	1	1	2	3	0	-1	2	17:06	1:44
E. Haula	LW	1	0	1	1	3	1	-1	0	11:49	0:54
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	17:36	0:55
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	1	5	0	-3	0	15:22	4:58
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	13:47	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	3	5	0	-2	0	11:38	0:00
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:17	1:41
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:56	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	9:57	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	1	1	6	1	2	-1	0	24:28	4:54
L. Hughes	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	15:11	1:18
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	-1	0	21:14	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	7	18:54	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	17:33	0:05
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	7	16:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	19	15	4	.789	58:22	Loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Raymond	LW	0	2	2	0	1	0	+1	2	20:27	3:24
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	0	19:01	3:27
P. Kane	RW	1	1	2	3	1	0	0	2	18:38	3:19
D. Larkin	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	2	23:00	3:22
M. Rasmussen	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	14:40	1:24
A. Copp	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	13:40	0:09
C. Fischer	RW	1	0	1	1	4	0	+2	5	10:37	0:00
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	18:44	1:25
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:59	1:27
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:26	1:37
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	11:07	0:03
S. Edvinsson	D	0	1	1	0	1	4	+1	0	20:15	0:04
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	1	7	3	+1	2	24:51	1:29
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	16:11	0:06
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	7	15:07	0:11
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	13:34	0:00
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	+2	0	13:16	0:00
E. Gustafsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:15	3:23

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	40	37	3	.925	60:00	Win
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.5, DET 3.5	NJD 3, DET 5
Total goals	7.0	8
Shots on goal	NJD 31.3, DET 29.4	NJD 40, DET 20
Win chance	DET 50%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.9	8	1.15	1	37%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.1	2	0.76	1	32%	0
DET D. Larkin	3.1	3	1.06	1	38%	1
NJD D. Hamilton	3.0	6	0.71	1	18%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.9	2	0.96	1	29%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.8	8	0.97	2	30%	2
DET A. DeBrincat	2.7	3	0.80	2	30%	1
DET P. Kane	2.5	3	0.83	2	26%	1
DET L. Raymond	2.1	0	0.86	2	28%	0
DET V. Tarasenko	1.8	0	0.60	0	24%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.8	1	0.46	1	18%	1
NJD L. Hughes	1.8	0	0.61	1	11%	0
DET M. Seider	1.7	1	0.58	0	9%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.7	0	0.52	0	24%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.6	1	0.53	0	19%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.4	1	0.32	0	7%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.4	3	0.38	0	17%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.4	1	0.40	0	18%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.4	3	0.25	0	6%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.2	2	0.40	0	15%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.2	1	0.41	1	16%	1
NJD T. Tatar	1.2	1	0.37	0	15%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.2	1	0.23	0	4%	0
DET E. Gustafsson	1.2	0	0.42	0	7%	0
DET A. Copp	1.2	1	0.43	1	16%	0
NJD N. Bastian	1.2	0	0.28	0	12%	0
DET J. Petry	1.1	1	0.36	0	5%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.1	1	0.31	0	8%	0
NJD B. Dillon	1.0	0	0.30	0	6%	0
DET C. Fischer	1.0	1	0.25	1	10%	1
NJD C. Lazar	1.0	1	0.25	0	9%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	0.9	0	0.26	1	9%	0
DET J. Veleno	0.9	1	0.27	0	12%	0
DET O. Maatta	0.7	0	0.23	0	5%	0
DET J. Holl	0.5	2	0.21	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.