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Game Recap
NJD5
DET4
NJD beat DET 5-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.21 expected goals to 2.40. T. Meier led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Motte had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Markstrom stopped 24 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| DET | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 3:41DETV. TarasenkoPP0.08 xG
- 1st 9:22DETL. Raymond0.11 xG
- 1st 16:05NJDD. HamiltonPP0.13 xG
- 1st 18:00NJDT. MeierPP0.06 xG
- 2nd 1:26DETT. Motte0.04 xG
- 2nd 11:10NJDN. Hischier0.17 xG
- 2nd 16:49NJDS. Noesen0.49 xG
- 3rd 3:05NJDJ. HughesPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 3:27DETJ. Holl0.00 xG
Team Stats
NJDDET
29Shots on goal28
4.21Expected goals2.40
81Shot attempts55
265v5 shots on goal20
3/4Power play1/4
30Hits19
13Blocked shots26
13Penalty minutes11
26Giveaways14
5Takeaways0
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 4.21 xGDET 2.40 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hughes | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:50 | 3:00 |
| N. Hischier | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:29 | 2:55 |
| T. Meier | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:25 | 2:09 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:02 | 3:00 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:40 | 2:59 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:04 | 0:48 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:01 | 2:08 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:40 | 1:18 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 16:32 | 2:11 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:05 | 0:00 |
| K. MacDermid | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:30 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:50 | 3:04 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:09 | 2:13 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 19:59 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 28 | 24 | 4 | .857 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:16 | 1:49 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:31 | 1:55 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:55 | 5:55 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:46 | 5:49 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:37 | 1:40 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:01 |
| T. Motte | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:33 | 0:08 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:11 | 5:49 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 17:24 | 5:36 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:16 | 1:30 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 18:48 | 0:34 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:14 | 1:46 |
| J. Holl | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 15:44 | 0:03 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 26:23 | 4:59 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:32 | 0:56 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 3.4, DET 3.0 | NJD 5, DET 4 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 31.2, DET 26.7 | NJD 29, DET 28 |
| Win chance | NJD 55% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.7 | 2 | 1.09 | 2 | 36% | 1 |
| NJD T. Meier | 2.9 | 5 | 0.66 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.8 | 2 | 0.68 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.7 | 0 | 0.93 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.7 | 2 | 0.92 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.7 | 4 | 0.94 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.4 | 1 | 0.73 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.0 | 3 | 0.86 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.9 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 4 | 0.61 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.8 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.8 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.7 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.6 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.5 | 4 | 0.48 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.4 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.4 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.3 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.3 | 5 | 0.19 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 1 | 0.46 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.1 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 1.0 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.8 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.4 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 2% | 1 |
| NJD K. MacDermid | 0.4 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.