Game Recap: NJD 5, DET 4 (OT), October 13, 2026

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Game Recap

NJD5

Final/OTTue, Oct 13, 2026Every game that night

DET4

NJD beat DET 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.66 expected goals to 2.18. NJD outshot DET 37 to 27. A. DeBrincat led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Hughes had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. J. Allen stopped 23 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NJD	1	3	0	1	5
DET	1	2	1	0	4

1st 6:07NJDE. Rodrigues0.21 xG
1st 18:35DETE. Finnie0.05 xG
2nd 1:43DETM. Brandsegg-Nygård0.15 xG
2nd 7:03NJDA. Mantha0.24 xG
2nd 10:16NJDN. HischierPP0.13 xG
2nd 15:10DETA. DeBrincat0.03 xG
2nd 16:52NJDJ. Bratt0.16 xG
3rd 5:46DETA. DeBrincat0.07 xG
OT 1:19NJDJ. Hughes0.27 xG

Team Stats

NJDDET

37Shots on goal27

4.66Expected goals2.18

71Shot attempts55

345v5 shots on goal24

1/1Power play0/1

13Hits25

13Blocked shots16

2Penalty minutes2

13Giveaways19

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 4.66 xGDET 2.18 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD36 on goal, 5 scored

DET27 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	1	2	3	8	0	0	+2	0	23:31	0:46
J. Bratt	LW	1	2	3	2	1	0	+2	0	20:16	0:46
E. Rodrigues	C	1	1	2	4	2	0	+2	0	14:31	0:46
A. Mantha	RW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	0	12:23	0:00
D. Mercer	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-2	0	17:17	0:00
N. Hischier	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	-3	0	16:22	0:46
S. Noesen	RW	0	1	1	1	5	0	+1	0	11:44	0:00
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	0	19:27	0:00
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	14:52	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	10:36	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:26	0:00
A. Lombardi	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	2	10:04	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	19:24	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	25:24	0:46
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	23:50	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	+2	0	20:32	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:00	0:00
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	27	23	4	.852	61:05	Win
N. Daws	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. DeBrincat	RW	2	1	3	6	1	1	+4	0	21:25	1:48
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	1	1	2	4	6	0	+4	0	19:00	0:12
E. Finnie	C	1	1	2	4	0	0	+4	0	18:20	0:12
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	21:18	1:48
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:10	1:48
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	19:30	1:48
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-3	0	18:15	0:12
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	17:33	0:12
S. Dries	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	12:14	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	2	10:01	0:00
C. Mazur	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	6:10	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	0	23:25	1:48
J. Faulk	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	19:36	0:12
B. Chiarot	D	0	1	1	1	2	4	+1	0	19:22	0:00
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	14:18	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	14:10	0:00
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	1	5	3	0	0	15:09	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	13:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	37	32	5	.865	61:05	OT loss
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1J. Hughes21:32A. Gritsyuk19:27J. Bratt18:34

Line 2D. Mercer16:31T. Meier14:42N. Hischier14:03

Line 3A. Mantha12:09E. Rodrigues12:16S. Noesen11:30

Line 4J. Boqvist10:23A. Lombardi9:50C. Glass9:14

Pair 1L. Hughes22:43B. Pesce22:50

Pair 2D. Hamilton18:38J. Siegenthaler17:56

Pair 3J. Kovacevic16:00D. Chisholm15:32

DET

Line 1A. DeBrincat18:46E. Finnie17:25M. Brandsegg-Nygård18:20

Line 2D. Larkin18:50V. Arvidsson18:00L. Raymond16:52

Line 3A. Copp17:25M. Rasmussen16:41K. Kolesar9:47

Line 4S. Dries11:52C. Mazur6:10

Pair 1B. Chiarot18:48M. Seider19:53

Pair 2J. Faulk18:58A. Sandin-Pellikka13:54

Pair 3A. Johansson14:10A. Englund14:55

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 16 overs hit (56%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DET A. DeBrincat	3.5	+125	-130	6	Over
NJD J. Hughes	3.5	+125	-140	8	Over
NJD D. Hamilton	2.5	+130	-156	5	Over
DET D. Larkin	2.5	-155	+122	2	Under
DET L. Raymond	2.5	+138	-155	1	Under
DET M. Seider	2.5	+148	-175	2	Under
NJD N. Hischier	2.5	+125	-160	3	Over
NJD T. Meier	2.5	-140	+150	2	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	2.5	-122	+105	1	Under
NJD A. Gritsyuk	1.5	-120	-115	2	Over
NJD A. Mantha	1.5	-110	-111	1	Under
NJD D. Mercer	1.5	+105	-125	3	Over
DET E. Finnie	1.5	+105	-135	4	Over
NJD E. Rodrigues	1.5	-155	+120	4	Over
NJD J. Bratt	1.5	-160	+150	2	Over
NJD L. Hughes	1.5	-156	+130	1	Under

8 of 34 overs hit (24%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+165	-190	2	Over
NJD A. Gritsyuk	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
DET A. Johansson	0.5	+1800	-3500	0	Under
NJD A. Lombardi	0.5	+850	-2500	0	Under
NJD A. Mantha	0.5	+370	-400	1	Over
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	0.5	+1300	–	0	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+1800	–	0	Under
NJD B. Pesce	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
NJD C. Glass	0.5	+750	-1200	0	Under
DET C. Mazur	0.5	+1200	-3500	0	Under
NJD D. Chisholm	0.5	+2800	-5000	0	Under
NJD D. Hamilton	0.5	+700	-1000	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+185	-230	0	Under
NJD D. Mercer	0.5	+550	-1100	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+430	-650	1	Over
NJD E. Rodrigues	0.5	+500	-800	1	Over
NJD J. Boqvist	0.5	+850	-1000	0	Under
NJD J. Bratt	0.5	+280	-390	1	Over
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+850	-2800	0	Under
NJD J. Hughes	0.5	+165	-220	1	Over
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.5	+2400	–	0	Under
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.5	+2200	-10000	0	Under
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+900	-2500	0	Under
NJD L. Hughes	0.5	+650	-1000	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+250	-330	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+500	-750	1	Over
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+650	-1400	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+625	-700	0	Under
NJD N. Hischier	0.5	+210	-270	1	Over
DET S. Dries	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
NJD S. Noesen	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
NJD T. Meier	0.5	+260	-285	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+200	-280	0	Under

10 of 21 overs hit (48%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+295	-425	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+140	-150	1	Over
DET A. Johansson	0.5	+650	-1100	0	Under
NJD A. Mantha	0.5	+220	-250	1	Over
NJD B. Pesce	0.5	+390	-575	0	Under
NJD D. Hamilton	0.5	+230	-250	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+115	-140	0	Under
NJD D. Mercer	0.5	+280	-525	1	Over
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+350	-500	1	Over
NJD E. Rodrigues	0.5	+330	-475	1	Over
NJD J. Bratt	0.5	+115	-155	2	Over
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+225	-310	1	Over
NJD J. Hughes	0.5	-105	-120	2	Over
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under
NJD L. Hughes	0.5	+155	-155	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+110	-135	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+250	-360	1	Over
DET M. Seider	0.5	+120	-145	1	Over
NJD N. Hischier	0.5	+140	-160	0	Under
NJD T. Meier	0.5	+176	-215	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+155	-155	0	Under

11 of 21 overs hit (52%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+175	-240	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	-180	+145	3	Over
DET A. Johansson	0.5	+475	-750	0	Under
NJD A. Mantha	0.5	+105	-120	2	Over
NJD B. Pesce	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
NJD D. Hamilton	0.5	+165	-185	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	-190	+175	0	Under
NJD D. Mercer	0.5	+140	-175	1	Over
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+210	-235	2	Over
NJD E. Rodrigues	0.5	+185	-250	2	Over
NJD J. Bratt	0.5	-145	+117	3	Over
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+160	-215	1	Over
NJD J. Hughes	0.5	-240	+200	3	Over
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+400	-650	0	Under
NJD L. Hughes	0.5	+115	-115	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	-155	+140	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+155	-220	2	Over
DET M. Seider	0.5	-120	-105	1	Over
NJD N. Hischier	0.5	-155	+125	1	Over
NJD T. Meier	0.5	-115	+100	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	-140	+120	0	Under

3 of 14 overs hit (21%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+225	-300	0	Under
NJD A. Gritsyuk	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NJD A. Mantha	0.5	+300	-600	0	Under
NJD D. Hamilton	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+250	-290	0	Under
NJD E. Rodrigues	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NJD J. Bratt	0.5	+250	-350	1	Over
NJD J. Hughes	0.5	+200	-260	1	Over
NJD L. Hughes	0.5	+350	-375	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+240	-280	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+310	-350	0	Under
NJD N. Hischier	0.5	+270	-400	1	Over
NJD T. Meier	0.5	+270	-500	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+250	-290	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NJD J. Allen	26.5	+100	-132	23	Under
DET J. Gibson	24.5	-125	-105	32	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
DET M. Seider	2.5	-105	-135	1	Under
DET B. Chiarot	1.5	-175	+125	4	Over
NJD B. Pesce	1.5	-130	-105	2	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.9, DET 3.2	NJD 5, DET 4
Total goals	6.1	9
Shots on goal	NJD 28.2, DET 28.6	NJD 37, DET 27
Win chance	DET 56%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.4	8	1.12	3	35%	1
DET A. DeBrincat	3.2	6	1.01	3	36%	2
NJD T. Meier	3.0	2	0.58	0	27%	0
DET D. Larkin	2.9	2	0.95	0	35%	0
DET V. Arvidsson	2.9	1	0.86	0	30%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.4	5	0.50	0	12%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.4	1	0.98	0	30%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.3	2	0.48	0	18%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.2	3	0.78	1	29%	1
NJD L. Hughes	2.1	1	0.58	0	10%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.1	2	0.85	3	24%	1
DET M. Seider	2.1	2	0.69	1	11%	0
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	2.0	4	0.36	2	15%	1
NJD E. Rodrigues	1.8	4	0.41	2	15%	1
NJD D. Mercer	1.7	3	0.41	1	20%	0
DET J. Faulk	1.6	0	0.47	1	10%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.5	4	0.42	2	19%	1
DET A. Copp	1.5	2	0.56	0	18%	0
NJD A. Lombardi	1.5	3	0.22	0	9%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.5	1	0.32	1	15%	0
NJD A. Mantha	1.4	1	0.50	2	20%	1
DET B. Chiarot	1.4	1	0.24	1	7%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.3	1	0.36	0	17%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.3	0	0.30	0	14%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.2	0	0.23	0	5%	0
DET S. Dries	1.1	0	0.17	0	10%	0
NJD J. Boqvist	1.0	2	0.27	0	12%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.9	0	0.16	1	4%	0
DET K. Kolesar	0.9	0	0.25	0	11%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.9	0	0.21	0	4%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.8	2	0.16	0	4%	0
DET C. Mazur	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.7	0	0.19	1	3%	0
NJD D. Chisholm	0.7	0	0.16	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.