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Game Recap
NJD3
EDM0
NJD beat EDM 3-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.17 expected goals to 2.79. EDM outshot NJD 31 to 16. J. Bratt led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Allen stopped 31 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| EDM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Team Stats
NJDEDM
16Shots on goal31
2.17Expected goals2.79
31Shot attempts60
145v5 shots on goal25
1/1Power play0/1
23Hits5
14Blocked shots9
4Penalty minutes2
12Giveaways19
5Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 2.17 xGEDM 2.79 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Bratt | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:28 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:47 | 0:28 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:00 |
| T. Meier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:59 | 0:00 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:31 | 0:00 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:14 | 0:28 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:13 | 0:28 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 0:00 |
| K. MacDermid | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:16 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:22 | 0:28 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:53 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:32 | 0:00 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Allen | 31 | 31 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Markstrom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Draisaitl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:39 | 1:06 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:30 | 1:47 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 | 0:00 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:35 | 1:45 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 | 0:54 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 | 0:00 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:31 | 0:15 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:13 |
| D. Ryan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:11 | 0:00 |
| N. Philp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:58 | 0:00 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28:28 | 2:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 27:36 | 1:45 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:52 | 0:15 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Pickard | 16 | 13 | 3 | .813 | 56:56 | Loss |
| S. Skinner | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 3.0, EDM 3.5 | NJD 3, EDM 0 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 26.6, EDM 31.0 | NJD 16, EDM 31 |
| Win chance | EDM 58% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.6 | 0 | 1.03 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 3.0 | 2 | 0.81 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 2.7 | 3 | 0.70 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.7 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.6 | 1 | 0.91 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.6 | 0 | 1.28 | 0 | 42% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.5 | 3 | 0.93 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.5 | 3 | 0.65 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.4 | 3 | 0.81 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.3 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 2.2 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.1 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.9 | 3 | 0.84 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.5 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.4 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.3 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.3 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.2 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM D. Ryan | 0.7 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.7 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD K. MacDermid | 0.4 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.