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Game Recap
NJD2
EDM1
NJD beat EDM 2-1, with the chances close: 3.17 expected goals to 2.53. C. Glass led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Allen stopped 22 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| EDM | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 5:23NJDA. Gritsyuk0.18 xG
- 2nd 7:02EDMM. Savoie0.08 xG
- 2nd 8:32NJDC. Glass0.16 xG
Team Stats
NJDEDM
17Shots on goal23
3.17Expected goals2.53
44Shot attempts55
145v5 shots on goal19
0/1Power play0/2
14Hits17
12Blocked shots12
11Penalty minutes19
10Giveaways17
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 3.17 xGEDM 2.53 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Glass | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:00 |
| A. Gritsyuk | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:44 | 1:34 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:03 | 2:00 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:04 | 2:00 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:27 | 0:26 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:09 | 2:00 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:00 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:11 | 0:00 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:45 | 0:00 |
| L. Hameenaho | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:32 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 | 1:26 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24:14 | 0:00 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:03 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:47 | 0:00 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:20 | 0:34 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Allen | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Markstrom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Savoie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:42 | 0:33 |
| I. Howard | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:46 | 1:27 |
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 25:17 | 2:25 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:27 | 3:27 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:36 | 3:27 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 | 0:33 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 14:08 | 1:19 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:08 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:54 | 0:00 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:41 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:12 | 2:16 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 26:48 | 3:27 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:55 | 0:33 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:32 | 0:25 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:53 | 0:00 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:00 |
| A. Regula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2:35 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NJD
Line 2O. Palat15:18N. Hischier15:02D. Mercer15:16
Line 3C. Glass12:04A. Gritsyuk11:34L. Hameenaho8:32
Line 4E. Dadonov8:45C. Brown12:31P. Cotter9:11
Pair 1B. Pesce20:17J. Siegenthaler21:34
Pair 2B. Dillon20:02D. Hamilton16:44
Pair 3J. Kovacevic11:22S. Nemec15:46
EDM
Line 1Z. Hyman19:29C. McDavid19:52R. Nugent-Hopkins17:09
Line 2J. Roslovic16:33M. Savoie15:42I. Howard11:19
Line 3C. Lazar8:37A. Mangiapane9:54M. Janmark12:11
Line 4V. Podkolzin12:49T. Frederic13:47
Pair 1M. Ekholm21:06E. Bouchard21:12
Pair 2D. Nurse17:36T. Emberson14:02
Pair 3J. Walman16:25S. Stastney12:07
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 2.8, EDM 3.7 | NJD 2, EDM 1 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 27.2, EDM 30.7 | NJD 17, EDM 23 |
| Win chance | EDM 64% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.6 | 0 | 0.97 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.6 | 4 | 1.65 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.0 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 3.0 | 5 | 0.87 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.8 | 1 | 0.99 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.4 | 0 | 0.74 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.3 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.1 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NJD A. Gritsyuk | 2.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.9 | 1 | 0.84 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| EDM J. Walman | 1.9 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM J. Roslovic | 1.9 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 1.8 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.8 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.5 | 4 | 0.32 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.4 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD C. Brown | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM I. Howard | 1.3 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM M. Savoie | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD E. Dadonov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM S. Stastney | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM T. Frederic | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM A. Mangiapane | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM A. Regula | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.7 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM C. Lazar | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.