Game Recap: NJD 0, FLA 1, November 20, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

NJD0

FinalThu, Nov 20, 2025Every game that night

FLA1

FLA beat NJD 1-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.96 expected goals to 1.98. NJD outshot FLA 32 to 24. J. Bratt had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. S. Bobrovsky stopped 32 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	0	0	0	0
FLA	1	0	0	1

1st 12:58FLAS. Reinhart0.07 xG

Team Stats

NJDFLA

32Shots on goal24

1.98Expected goals2.96

54Shot attempts59

255v5 shots on goal24

0/2Power play0/1

23Hits22

13Blocked shots14

2Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways10

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 1.98 xGFLA 2.96 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD32 on goal, 0 scored

FLA24 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	4	1	2	-1	0	22:33	2:51
D. Mercer	C	2	0	0	0	0	21:56	2:03
J. Bratt	LW	6	0	1	-1	0	20:44	2:37
T. Meier	RW	1	1	2	0	0	20:11	2:45
A. Gritsyuk	RW	2	1	1	-1	0	19:04	1:09
C. Brown	RW	1	1	0	0	0	16:30	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	1	6	0	0	0	12:29	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	2	1	0	0	0	11:39	1:34
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	0	10:09	1:07
L. Glendening	C	2	2	0	0	0	10:08	0:00
E. Dadonov	LW	1	0	0	0	0	9:31	0:00
J. Lammikko	C	0	2	0	0	0	8:20	0:00
S. Nemec	D	1	1	2	0	2	25:04	1:47
D. Hamilton	D	4	2	1	0	0	21:39	2:27
L. Hughes	D	1	0	1	-1	0	21:13	1:40
J. Siegenthaler	D	2	3	2	0	0	18:32	0:00
D. Cholowski	D	1	0	1	0	0	15:52	0:00
B. Dillon	D	1	2	0	-1	0	13:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	24	23	1	.958	58:27	Loss
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	20:08	1:10
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	20:06	1:10
B. Marchand	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:16	1:10
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	16:59	0:49
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:43	0:50
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:50	0:50
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:55	1:11
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	3	4	2	0	2	14:45	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	14:17	0:50
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	9:14	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:45	0:00
J. Devine	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	8:20	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	2	24:26	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	+1	0	24:04	0:41
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	23:26	1:19
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	22:21	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:19	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	32	32	0	1.000	59:43	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1J. Bratt15:28N. Hischier17:04A. Gritsyuk16:22

Line 2D. Mercer17:57C. Brown15:42T. Meier14:59

Line 3S. Noesen10:05P. Cotter12:29L. Glendening9:33

Line 4E. Dadonov9:31O. Palat9:02J. Lammikko8:20

Pair 1D. Hamilton18:13D. Cholowski15:52

Pair 2J. Siegenthaler17:32S. Nemec21:27

Pair 3B. Dillon12:59L. Hughes18:15

FLA

Line 1A. Lundell15:53M. Samoskevich15:53B. Marchand14:01

Line 2S. Reinhart15:17J. Boqvist13:10E. Rodrigues13:40

Line 3S. Bennett14:07A. Greer14:27C. Verhaeghe13:44

Line 4N. Gregor9:14L. Kunin8:45J. Devine8:20

Pair 1S. Jones20:59N. Mikkola20:43

Pair 2G. Forsling20:36A. Ekblad18:44

Pair 3J. Petry11:23U. Balinskis11:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamEvan Rodrigues NJD First game back in South Florida, his team until Mar 20262 SOG
Old teamJacob Markstrom FLA First game against NJD since he left (his team until Apr 2026)0 saves on 0
Old teamJesper Boqvist NJD First game back in South Florida, his team until Apr 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.7, FLA 3.2	NJD 0, FLA 1
Total goals	5.9	1
Shots on goal	NJD 25.4, FLA 29.5	NJD 32, FLA 24
Win chance	FLA 59%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Reinhart	2.8	3	0.98	1	40%	1
NJD T. Meier	2.7	1	0.65	0	29%	0
FLA B. Marchand	2.5	2	0.90	0	32%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.4	1	0.74	0	29%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.4	4	0.49	0	11%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.4	1	0.59	0	26%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.3	1	0.79	0	24%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.1	2	0.51	0	19%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.0	4	0.76	0	28%	0
NJD L. Hughes	2.0	1	0.55	0	7%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.0	6	0.81	0	23%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	1.9	2	0.41	0	15%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.9	0	0.42	0	16%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.8	0	0.53	0	12%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.7	2	0.49	0	10%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.7	2	0.39	1	9%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.7	2	0.49	0	23%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.5	1	0.39	0	8%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.4	2	0.36	0	16%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.3	1	0.36	0	15%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	1	0.23	0	5%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.0	0	0.31	0	14%	0
FLA N. Gregor	1.0	2	0.16	0	8%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.0	1	0.30	0	14%	0
NJD E. Dadonov	1.0	1	0.31	0	13%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.0	1	0.24	0	13%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.9	3	0.23	0	11%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	0.9	1	0.18	0	4%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.9	2	0.15	0	3%	0
FLA L. Kunin	0.8	0	0.14	0	9%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	1	0.23	0	4%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.7	0	0.22	0	3%	0
NJD J. Lammikko	0.7	0	0.16	0	8%	0
NJD D. Cholowski	0.7	1	0.18	0	3%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.5	2	0.11	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.