Game Recap: NJD 4, LAK 1, November 1, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD4

FinalSat, Nov 1, 2025Every game that night

LAK1

NJD beat LAK 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.97 expected goals to 2.76. LAK outshot NJD 44 to 22. D. Mercer led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Perry had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Markstrom stopped 43 of 44.

Team Stats

NJDLAK

22Shots on goal44

1.97Expected goals2.76

44Shot attempts93

195v5 shots on goal37

0/0Power play0/4

12Hits10

28Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes0

17Giveaways21

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 1.97 xGLAK 2.76 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD20 on goal, 3 scored

LAK43 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Mercer	C	2	0	2	3	0	1	+2	0	19:05	0:00
N. Hischier	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+3	2	22:13	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	1	1	0	1	4	+1	0	11:05	0:00
B. Halonen	LW	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	6:06	0:00
J. Hughes	C	0	0	0	4	0	2	-1	0	20:18	0:00
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	6	1	2	-1	0	18:23	0:00
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	17:27	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	13:48	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	12:53	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:39	0:00
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	2	11:18	0:00
J. Lammikko	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	7:22	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	25:43	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	1	1	0	5	2	+2	0	23:01	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	0	0	21:34	0:00
D. Cholowski	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+2	0	13:53	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	19:27	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	16:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	44	43	1	.977	60:00	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
A. Laferriere	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	18:26	3:06
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	1	1	3	-1	17:39	4:53
A. Kuzmenko	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	17:11	4:53
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	5	1	1	-2	20:35	4:58
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	20:20	4:53
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	19:50	4:55
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	18:48	3:04
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	4	2	3	0	16:24	0:01
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	6	0	0	-2	14:37	4:44
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	13:33	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	11:07	0:01
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:52	0:01
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	-1	22:26	3:06
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	5	0	0	-2	21:27	3:06
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	15:57	0:01
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	15:42	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	15:31	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	14:34	0:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	21	18	3	.857	57:01	Loss
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1T. Meier16:39D. Mercer14:17N. Hischier18:50

Line 2J. Hughes18:39J. Bratt14:40S. Noesen13:09

Line 3O. Palat11:35A. Gritsyuk11:18J. Lammikko6:55

Line 4L. Glendening8:41P. Cotter11:25B. Halonen5:53

Pair 1B. Dillon17:12L. Hughes20:06

Pair 2D. Hamilton17:01J. Siegenthaler17:52

Pair 3D. Cholowski13:48S. Nemec15:40

LAK

Line 1P. Danault15:12T. Moore15:35A. Laferriere14:20

Line 2K. Fiala14:30Q. Byfield14:27J. Armia13:33

Line 3A. Kopitar12:30A. Kuzmenko11:48A. Kempe15:09

Line 4A. Turcotte10:36J. Malott8:51C. Perry9:21

Pair 1B. Clarke18:02J. Edmundson15:35

Pair 2M. Anderson15:44C. Ceci14:33

Pair 3D. Doughty18:29B. Dumoulin15:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.9, LAK 3.2	NJD 4, LAK 1
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	NJD 26.5, LAK 28.8	NJD 22, LAK 44
Win chance	LAK 56%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.3	4	0.99	0	33%	0
LAK A. Kempe	3.1	2	0.99	0	37%	0
LAK K. Fiala	3.0	5	0.84	0	32%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.8	1	0.56	0	14%	0
NJD T. Meier	2.6	1	0.59	0	26%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.3	2	0.47	1	20%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.3	1	0.83	1	29%	1
LAK Q. Byfield	2.2	3	0.75	0	24%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.0	4	0.50	0	22%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.0	6	0.83	0	22%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	1.9	0	0.35	0	12%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.7	6	0.50	0	25%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.7	5	0.44	0	8%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.6	3	0.48	2	22%	2
NJD L. Hughes	1.6	1	0.43	1	6%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.5	3	0.65	1	26%	1
LAK D. Doughty	1.4	3	0.52	0	11%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.4	1	0.84	1	25%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.4	0	0.34	0	15%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.3	0	0.36	0	16%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.3	4	0.50	0	16%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	0	0.25	0	14%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.1	1	0.24	0	4%	0
LAK C. Ceci	1.0	1	0.25	0	4%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.0	1	0.30	0	13%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.0	3	0.23	0	4%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.9	1	0.26	0	4%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.9	1	0.24	0	5%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	0.9	0	0.25	0	9%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.9	0	0.14	1	3%	0
NJD J. Lammikko	0.9	2	0.19	0	9%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	0	0.20	1	4%	0
NJD D. Cholowski	0.7	0	0.16	1	3%	0
LAK J. Malott	0.6	0	0.12	0	8%	0
NJD B. Halonen	0.6	1	0.09	1	6%	1
NJD L. Glendening	0.6	0	0.12	1	7%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.