Game Recap: NJD 5, MIN 2, March 29, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD5

FinalSat, Mar 29, 2025Every game that night

MIN2

NJD beat MIN 5-2, with the chances close: 2.52 expected goals to 2.31. NJD outshot MIN 33 to 24. N. Hischier scored three for NJD. J. Markstrom stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	2	0	3	5
MIN	1	0	1	2

1st 0:29NJDN. Hischier0.25 xG
1st 5:46NJDP. Cotter0.07 xG
1st 16:31MINM. Foligno0.05 xG
3rd 3:13NJDN. Hischier0.04 xG
3rd 5:22MINR. Hartman0.35 xG
3rd 14:50NJDN. HischierPP0.32 xG
3rd 16:46NJDT. Tatar0.11 xG

Team Stats

NJDMIN

33Shots on goal24

2.52Expected goals2.31

67Shot attempts47

275v5 shots on goal20

1/1Power play0/2

24Hits29

9Blocked shots19

11Penalty minutes9

11Giveaways6

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 2.52 xGMIN 2.31 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD33 on goal, 5 scored

MIN23 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	3	0	3	3	0	0	+2	0	21:01	0:58
J. Bratt	LW	0	2	2	3	2	0	+2	0	19:18	0:58
S. Noesen	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+2	0	16:58	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:38	0:00
J. Dowling	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	13:02	0:00
T. Tatar	LW	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	12:15	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	10:36	0:00
N. Foote	LW	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	6:41	0:00
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	18:57	0:58
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:26	0:58
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	15:08	0:00
D. Sprong	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	8:52	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+3	0	21:42	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	19:55	0:58
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	23:30	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	19:49	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+3	9	19:11	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	24	22	2	.917	59:58	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Foligno	LW	1	1	2	1	4	1	+1	7	14:47	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	16:09	1:01
G. Nyquist	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	-1	0	14:46	0:59
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	2	1	2	-2	0	19:52	3:01
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	17:22	3:01
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	16:55	3:12
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	16:40	2:13
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	16:31	2:59
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	13:31	1:47
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	12:46	0:00
D. Shore	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	11:58	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	11:54	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	1	3	3	-3	0	19:32	0:59
Z. Bogosian	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	12:50	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	24:25	0:48
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	2	3	3	0	0	24:19	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-3	0	19:58	0:00
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	12:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	33	28	5	.848	60:00	Loss
M. Fleury	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.8, MIN 3.1	NJD 5, MIN 2
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	NJD 27.4, MIN 27.0	NJD 33, MIN 24
Win chance	MIN 54%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD T. Meier	2.9	5	0.66	0	30%	0
MIN M. Boldy	2.8	2	0.82	0	30%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.4	3	0.81	3	29%	3
MIN R. Hartman	2.4	3	0.59	1	25%	1
NJD J. Bratt	2.1	3	0.89	2	24%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.1	2	0.78	0	23%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.9	1	0.46	1	20%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.7	3	0.56	1	8%	0
NJD D. Sprong	1.7	0	0.41	0	17%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.6	2	0.43	0	10%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.5	2	0.40	0	20%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.5	1	0.24	0	5%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.5	1	0.47	1	10%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.5	0	0.38	0	16%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.5	2	0.46	0	17%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.5	2	0.33	0	15%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.5	0	0.46	0	20%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.5	1	0.57	0	22%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.4	1	0.38	0	8%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.4	2	0.32	0	9%	0
MIN G. Nyquist	1.2	1	0.51	1	18%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.2	1	0.37	1	16%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	1	0.39	2	18%	1
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	1	0.23	0	14%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	1	0.26	1	14%	1
NJD T. Tatar	1.0	1	0.28	1	12%	1
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.0	2	0.22	0	4%	0
NJD N. Foote	0.9	1	0.25	1	13%	0
NJD B. Dumoulin	0.9	1	0.24	1	3%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.9	1	0.18	1	4%	0
MIN J. Brazeau	0.9	2	0.23	0	12%	0
NJD S. Nemec	0.8	2	0.17	0	3%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	1	0.22	0	4%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.7	3	0.16	1	9%	0
MIN D. Shore	0.7	1	0.17	0	6%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.7	0	0.14	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.