Game Recap: NJD 4, MTL 3 (OT), January 25, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD4

Final/OTSat, Jan 25, 2025Every game that night

MTL3

NJD beat MTL 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.60 expected goals to 3.39. NJD outshot MTL 44 to 32. N. Suzuki led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). O. Palat had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Allen stopped 29 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NJD	2	1	0	1	4
MTL	0	2	1	0	3

1st 15:52NJDN. Hischier0.23 xG
1st 17:48NJDJ. Bratt0.06 xG
2nd 3:50MTLN. Suzuki0.19 xG
2nd 12:56NJDT. Tatar0.36 xG
2nd 17:05MTLC. Caufield0.22 xG
3rd 3:34MTLA. Carrier0.04 xG
OT 4:06NJDJ. Hughes0.30 xG

Team Stats

NJDMTL

44Shots on goal32

4.60Expected goals3.39

94Shot attempts70

385v5 shots on goal29

0/1Power play0/1

17Hits20

22Blocked shots32

2Penalty minutes2

11Giveaways12

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 4.60 xGMTL 3.39 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD43 on goal, 4 scored

MTL32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Bratt	LW	1	1	2	3	0	2	0	0	19:21	1:00
J. Hughes	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-2	0	20:07	1:03
T. Meier	RW	0	1	1	5	0	2	+1	0	19:55	1:00
S. Noesen	RW	0	1	1	4	1	0	+2	0	18:19	0:55
N. Hischier	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	14:09	1:00
C. Lazar	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:08	0:00
T. Tatar	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	10:15	0:00
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	22:23	1:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	13:54	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	4	1	1	-2	0	13:04	0:57
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:31	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	10:39	0:54
D. Hamilton	D	0	2	2	3	1	4	0	0	19:53	0:55
B. Dillon	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	2	17:03	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	23:52	1:05
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	3	0	5	0	0	22:06	0:05
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	20:06	0:06
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	19:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	32	29	3	.906	64:06	Win
I. Poulter	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	1	2	3	2	1	2	+3	0	18:55	1:23
C. Caufield	RW	1	1	2	4	1	0	+3	0	17:49	1:21
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	2	2	2	1	1	+3	0	16:41	1:22
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	19:01	0:39
P. Laine	LW	0	0	0	4	0	2	-2	0	16:58	1:23
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:36	0:37
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	16:30	0:37
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	-3	0	16:26	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	14:11	0:00
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	13:53	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	13:41	0:38
M. Pezzetta	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	7:01	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	0	0	25:11	0:00
A. Carrier	D	1	0	1	2	0	6	+1	0	22:57	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-2	2	24:32	0:39
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	1	2	6	0	0	23:23	1:21
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:56	0:00
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	12:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	44	40	4	.909	64:06	OT loss
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJake Allen NJD Faces MTL, his team until Mar 202429 saves on 32, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.2, MTL 2.9	NJD 4, MTL 3
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	NJD 29.2, MTL 25.7	NJD 44, MTL 32
Win chance	NJD 54%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.9	2	1.18	1	38%	1
NJD T. Meier	2.9	5	0.74	1	33%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	4	0.73	2	32%	1
NJD N. Hischier	2.7	3	0.93	1	33%	1
NJD J. Bratt	2.5	3	1.01	2	30%	1
NJD D. Hamilton	2.4	3	0.64	2	14%	0
MTL P. Laine	2.4	4	0.74	0	30%	0
NJD S. Noesen	2.3	4	0.63	1	27%	0
MTL M. Matheson	2.0	2	0.60	0	11%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	1.9	2	0.83	3	27%	1
NJD D. Mercer	1.7	2	0.48	0	23%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.6	1	0.39	0	18%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.6	2	0.36	0	16%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.5	3	0.53	0	8%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.4	0	0.42	0	17%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.4	2	0.42	0	19%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.4	2	0.53	2	18%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.4	4	0.47	0	19%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.3	3	0.27	0	6%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.3	3	0.32	1	8%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.3	0	0.31	0	16%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.2	2	0.33	0	17%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.2	2	0.36	0	14%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.1	1	0.72	0	6%	0
NJD N. Bastian	1.1	0	0.27	0	12%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.1	2	0.32	1	5%	1
MTL J. Evans	1.0	2	0.41	0	14%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	3	0.21	0	4%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.0	1	0.26	0	5%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.0	0	0.14	0	4%	0
NJD T. Tatar	0.9	3	0.29	1	13%	1
NJD C. Lazar	0.9	2	0.22	1	9%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.8	0	0.21	0	12%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.7	1	0.24	0	4%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.6	1	0.24	1	5%	0
MTL M. Pezzetta	0.4	2	0.11	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.