Game Recap: NJD 4, MTL 0, February 8, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD4

FinalSat, Feb 8, 2025Every game that night

MTL0

NJD beat MTL 4-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.63 expected goals to 3.24. MTL outshot NJD 34 to 22. J. Bratt led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Xhekaj had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Allen stopped 34 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	1	1	2	4
MTL	0	0	0	0

1st 13:43NJDJ. Bratt0.16 xG
2nd 12:44NJDP. Cotter0.50 xG
3rd 1:53NJDJ. Hughes0.17 xG
3rd 10:09NJDL. Hughes0.04 xG

Team Stats

NJDMTL

22Shots on goal34

2.63Expected goals3.24

49Shot attempts68

205v5 shots on goal30

0/2Power play0/2

20Hits26

14Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways12

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 2.63 xGMTL 3.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD20 on goal, 4 scored

MTL34 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+4	0	17:25	2:20
J. Bratt	LW	1	1	2	4	2	0	+3	0	16:50	2:15
D. Mercer	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:05	1:45
P. Cotter	LW	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	16:39	1:40
T. Meier	RW	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	16:07	2:07
T. Tatar	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	13:28	1:45
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:26	2:15
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	14:52	0:00
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:06	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:13	1:53
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:26	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:12	0:00
L. Hughes	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+3	0	23:05	1:49
D. Hamilton	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	19:23	2:11
B. Pesce	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	0	0	18:24	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	20:00	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	19:44	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	4	16:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	34	34	0	1.000	59:25	Win
N. Daws	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	3	1	0	0	0	18:04	2:59
C. Caufield	RW	3	0	0	0	0	18:02	2:36
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	4	0	0	0	17:49	2:37
C. Dvorak	C	1	3	1	-2	0	15:44	1:24
K. Dach	C	1	2	0	-1	0	14:48	1:23
J. Evans	C	3	3	1	-2	0	14:35	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	5	2	0	0	2	14:21	0:00
A. Newhook	C	1	0	0	-1	0	14:10	0:55
J. Armia	RW	2	5	0	-2	0	14:06	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	-2	0	13:29	1:01
P. Laine	LW	1	0	1	-2	0	12:44	3:01
O. Beck	C	1	3	0	-1	0	11:54	0:00
L. Hutson	D	2	0	2	-2	0	22:05	2:46
A. Carrier	D	0	1	4	0	0	20:08	0:04
A. Xhekaj	D	6	1	1	-1	0	19:47	0:00
M. Matheson	D	2	1	0	-1	2	18:49	1:14
D. Savard	D	0	0	1	-1	0	17:46	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	2	0	1	-2	0	17:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	22	18	4	.818	60:00	Loss
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJake Allen NJD Faces MTL, his team until Mar 202434 saves on 34, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.0, MTL 2.7	NJD 4, MTL 0
Total goals	5.7	4
Shots on goal	NJD 28.6, MTL 25.6	NJD 22, MTL 34
Win chance	NJD 54%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	4.0	1	1.21	2	39%	1
MTL C. Caufield	3.0	3	0.74	0	32%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.0	2	0.74	1	32%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.6	2	0.65	1	14%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.5	4	1.04	2	30%	1
MTL P. Laine	2.1	1	0.60	0	26%	0
MTL M. Matheson	2.1	2	0.60	0	11%	0
NJD S. Noesen	2.0	1	0.54	0	23%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	1.9	3	0.80	0	26%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.8	0	0.37	0	17%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.8	1	0.49	1	24%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.8	1	0.38	0	17%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.6	1	0.54	1	9%	1
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.6	1	0.56	0	19%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.5	2	0.36	0	17%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.5	0	0.47	0	19%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.4	1	0.41	0	18%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.4	2	0.26	1	5%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	5	0.30	0	16%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.3	1	0.40	0	15%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.3	1	0.38	0	15%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.3	3	0.34	1	17%	1
MTL L. Mailloux	1.2	2	0.41	0	8%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.2	0	0.34	0	5%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	2	0.66	0	6%	0
NJD N. Bastian	1.2	1	0.28	0	13%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.2	6	0.17	0	5%	0
NJD T. Tatar	1.1	1	0.31	1	14%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.0	1	0.25	0	5%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	3	0.38	0	13%	0
NJD C. Lazar	1.0	0	0.25	0	10%	0
NJD S. Nemec	0.9	0	0.23	0	4%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.8	0	0.22	0	11%	0
MTL O. Beck	0.8	1	0.17	0	10%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	1	0.28	0	5%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.8	0	0.25	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.