Game Recap: NJD 5, NSH 0, February 23, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD5

FinalSun, Feb 23, 2025Every game that night

NSH0

NJD beat NSH 5-0, with the chances close: 3.16 expected goals to 3.37. N. Hischier led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). J. Hughes had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.9. N. Daws stopped 29 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	1	2	2	5
NSH	0	0	0	0

1st 13:45NJDO. Palat0.32 xG
2nd 9:14NJDD. Hamilton0.02 xG
2nd 14:28NJDS. Casey0.02 xG
3rd 5:06NJDS. NoesenPP0.11 xG
3rd 9:27NJDT. Tatar0.15 xG

Team Stats

NJDNSH

36Shots on goal29

3.16Expected goals3.37

52Shot attempts84

325v5 shots on goal22

1/1Power play0/4

39Hits21

25Blocked shots6

8Penalty minutes2

18Giveaways10

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.16 xGNSH 3.37 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD36 on goal, 5 scored

NSH29 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	0	3	3	2	0	0	+2	0	17:50	1:08
J. Bratt	LW	0	2	2	2	1	1	+3	0	15:35	1:08
J. Hughes	C	0	1	1	8	0	0	+2	0	17:10	1:08
S. Noesen	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	+1	0	14:25	1:08
T. Tatar	LW	1	0	1	1	1	3	+2	0	12:02	0:00
O. Palat	LW	1	0	1	1	4	0	+2	0	10:30	0:00
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	18:06	0:00
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	15:32	0:00
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:52	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	12:45	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	12:08	0:00
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	11:23	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	2	2	2	1	2	+2	2	19:15	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	1	1	2	5	6	2	+2	0	18:44	1:08
S. Casey	D	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	0	14:06	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	1	4	4	+1	0	24:16	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	+1	2	21:45	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	1	8	2	0	2	21:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
N. Daws	29	29	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Stamkos	C	5	1	0	-1	0	21:22	5:55
F. Forsberg	LW	4	1	0	-2	0	20:35	6:44
J. Marchessault	RW	1	2	0	-3	0	20:22	6:05
R. O'Reilly	C	1	0	0	-2	0	20:06	4:12
G. Nyquist	RW	1	1	0	0	0	17:50	3:13
L. Evangelista	RW	1	1	0	0	0	14:42	2:06
T. Novak	C	0	0	1	0	0	13:42	1:52
C. Smith	RW	1	1	0	-1	0	13:40	0:00
C. Sissons	C	1	3	0	-1	0	13:02	0:00
M. McCarron	C	3	1	0	-1	2	12:45	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	1	1	0	-1	0	12:41	1:41
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	0	5:47	0:00
R. Josi	D	4	0	3	-1	0	26:23	6:11
B. Skjei	D	2	0	1	-1	0	21:07	1:49
J. Barron	D	2	2	1	-1	0	18:51	0:08
N. Blankenburg	D	1	0	0	-1	0	17:14	0:04
A. Englund	D	0	2	0	-2	0	14:23	0:00
L. Schenn	D	1	5	0	-2	0	14:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	36	31	5	.861	60:00	Loss
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamLuke Evangelista NJD First game back in Nashville, his team until Apr 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.8, NSH 2.9	NJD 5, NSH 0
Total goals	5.7	5
Shots on goal	NJD 27.6, NSH 28.6	NJD 36, NSH 29
Win chance	NSH 50%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.9	8	1.13	1	36%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.4	4	0.91	0	36%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.9	4	0.85	0	19%	0
NJD T. Meier	2.9	1	0.68	0	28%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.8	1	0.76	0	33%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.8	5	0.67	2	17%	1
NJD N. Hischier	2.6	2	0.82	3	28%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.4	2	0.95	2	26%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.2	5	0.73	0	32%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.0	2	0.45	0	12%	0
NJD S. Noesen	2.0	4	0.51	1	21%	1
NSH L. Evangelista	1.9	1	0.37	0	15%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.8	1	0.63	0	24%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.7	2	0.34	0	15%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.6	1	0.44	0	21%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.6	2	0.53	2	11%	0
NSH T. Novak	1.5	0	0.46	0	19%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.5	1	0.27	0	8%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.4	1	0.56	0	20%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.3	0	0.26	0	6%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.3	1	0.41	1	16%	1
NJD P. Cotter	1.3	1	0.33	0	16%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.3	1	0.31	0	16%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.2	1	0.31	0	13%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.2	2	0.27	0	10%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	3	0.22	0	12%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.2	1	0.15	0	4%	0
NJD N. Bastian	1.1	1	0.25	0	11%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.1	1	0.22	0	9%	0
NSH M. Jankowski	1.0	0	0.26	0	13%	0
NJD T. Tatar	1.0	1	0.29	1	12%	1
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.9	1	0.23	0	6%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.8	0	0.20	0	10%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	1	0.27	0	6%	0
NJD S. Casey	0.7	3	0.30	1	10%	1
NSH A. Englund	0.4	0	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.