Game Recap: NJD 4, NSH 2, March 26, 2026

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Game Recap

NJD4

FinalThu, Mar 26, 2026Every game that night

NSH2

NJD beat NSH 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.93 expected goals to 2.30. NJD outshot NSH 30 to 17. J. Bratt led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). S. Stamkos had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Markstrom stopped 15 of 17.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	1	1	2	4
NSH	0	2	0	2

1st 18:02NJDJ. Bratt0.22 xG
2nd 9:13NJDN. Hischier0.16 xG
2nd 11:09NSHR. Schaefer0.16 xG
2nd 13:00NSHS. Stamkos0.14 xG
3rd 14:07NJDN. HischierPP0.12 xG
3rd 19:27NJDT. MeierEN0.97 xG

Team Stats

NJDNSH

30Shots on goal17

3.93Expected goals2.30

57Shot attempts48

245v5 shots on goal14

1/3Power play0/1

21Hits13

17Blocked shots13

2Penalty minutes24

14Giveaways13

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.93 xGNSH 2.30 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD29 on goal, 4 scored

NSH16 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Bratt	LW	1	2	3	1	0	2	+1	0	18:41	2:24
J. Hughes	C	0	2	2	7	0	0	+1	0	23:08	3:24
N. Hischier	C	2	0	2	3	0	1	+2	0	18:06	2:20
C. Brown	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	20:36	2:39
T. Meier	RW	1	0	1	4	3	2	+1	0	18:39	2:01
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:01	1:40
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	13:25	0:00
L. Hameenaho	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	12:34	1:38
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:06	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	9:28	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	9:24	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:36	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	2	2	1	1	3	+1	2	20:03	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	17:18	1:17
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	22:38	2:21
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	20:21	2:01
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	5	2	-1	0	19:31	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	17	15	2	.882	60:00	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	6	0	0	-1	10	18:11	1:30
L. Evangelista	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	10	15:44	0:30
F. Svechkov	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	10:44	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	9:12	0:00
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	20:39	1:31
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	20:21	1:31
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	17:45	1:31
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:03	0:29
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:36	0:00
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	0	6	1	-1	0	14:08	0:00
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	13:40	0:29
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	8:20	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	21:35	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	25:46	1:28
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	21:48	0:29
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:40	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	16:08	0:00
R. Ufko	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:01	0:32

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	29	26	3	.897	58:18	Loss
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1C. Brown15:01J. Hughes19:44J. Bratt14:42

Line 2T. Meier16:31D. Mercer13:35N. Hischier14:12

Line 3C. Glass11:17L. Hameenaho10:56E. Dadonov12:06

Line 4N. Bjugstad9:24M. Tsyplakov9:28P. Cotter8:36

Pair 1D. Hamilton17:55J. Siegenthaler18:21

Pair 2B. Dillon18:10S. Nemec16:01

Pair 3J. Kovacevic16:06L. Hughes17:40

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos14:57R. O'Reilly15:13L. Evangelista15:04

Line 2F. Forsberg17:08J. Marchessault14:32M. Wood11:39

Line 3T. Jost12:23Z. L'Heureux11:49E. Haula14:40

Line 4F. Svechkov10:44R. Schaefer9:12O. Wiesblatt8:20

Pair 1R. Josi20:58B. Skjei18:24

Pair 2A. Wilsby16:08N. Hague19:45

Pair 3N. Perbix16:20R. Ufko12:29

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamLuke Evangelista NJD First game back in Nashville, his team until Apr 20261 A, 2 SOG
Old teamCody Glass NJD Faces NSH, his team until Apr 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.1, NSH 2.9	NJD 4, NSH 2
Total goals	6.0	6
Shots on goal	NJD 30.6, NSH 27.2	NJD 30, NSH 17
Win chance	NJD 53%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.6	7	1.15	2	35%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.4	4	0.62	1	29%	1
NSH F. Forsberg	2.9	1	0.90	0	35%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.7	2	0.82	0	18%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.6	2	0.62	0	16%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.6	3	0.83	2	30%	2
NJD J. Bratt	2.2	1	0.88	3	24%	1
NSH J. Marchessault	2.2	0	0.67	0	28%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.1	6	0.76	1	33%	1
NSH L. Evangelista	1.9	2	0.56	1	16%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.9	0	0.81	0	27%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.9	3	0.54	0	9%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.9	0	0.61	1	20%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.7	1	0.44	0	20%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.7	1	0.44	0	19%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.6	1	0.43	0	10%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.6	0	0.37	0	16%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.5	1	0.30	0	13%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.5	0	0.43	0	21%	0
NJD L. Hameenaho	1.4	2	0.28	0	11%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.3	0	0.25	0	11%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.3	1	0.35	1	11%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.2	1	0.25	1	6%	0
NJD E. Dadonov	1.1	1	0.34	0	14%	0
NJD N. Bjugstad	1.1	1	0.20	0	10%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.0	0	0.22	0	3%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	1	0.22	0	5%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.9	0	0.20	0	4%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	0.9	0	0.25	1	9%	0
NJD M. Tsyplakov	0.8	3	0.19	0	7%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.8	1	0.19	1	11%	1
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.7	1	0.16	2	3%	0
NJD P. Cotter	0.7	0	0.18	0	10%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.6	0	0.20	0	5%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.6	0	0.15	0	7%	0
NSH R. Ufko	0.6	0	0.33	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.