Game Recap: NJD 4, NYI 3 (OT), November 9, 2024

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Game Recap

NJD4

Final/OTSat, Nov 9, 2024Every game that night

NYI3

NJD beat NYI 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.27 expected goals to 2.60. NJD outshot NYI 33 to 22. J. Hughes led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Noesen had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. J. Markstrom stopped 19 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NJD	0	1	2	1	4
NYI	1	0	2	0	3

1st 13:09NYIS. Holmstrom0.14 xG
2nd 5:57NJDJ. HughesPP0.05 xG
3rd 10:30NYID. Cholowski0.11 xG
3rd 12:26NYIB. Nelson0.21 xG
3rd 15:33NJDD. Mercer0.18 xG
3rd 19:10NJDS. Noesen0.06 xG
OT 2:35NJDJ. Hughes0.24 xG

Team Stats

NJDNYI

33Shots on goal22

3.27Expected goals2.60

63Shot attempts47

235v5 shots on goal21

1/2Power play0/0

24Hits34

10Blocked shots13

0Penalty minutes4

10Giveaways16

14Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.27 xGNYI 2.60 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD33 on goal, 4 scored

NYI22 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	2	1	3	5	1	1	+1	21:05	2:00
D. Mercer	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	22:34	0:47
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	18:45	1:53
P. Cotter	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	16:25	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	1	0	1	7	6	1	+1	16:11	1:51
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	21:32	1:52
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	18:56	0:49
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:38	0:40
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	16:35	0:00
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	8:25	0:34
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	5:45	0:00
K. MacDermid	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	4:36	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	3	3	5	1	3	+1	21:13	2:05
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	22:30	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	20:39	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	20:29	0:49
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	18:00	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	16:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	22	19	3	.864	62:07	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Holmstrom	RW	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	0	17:33	0:00
B. Nelson	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	19:36	0:00
K. Palmieri	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	18:04	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	16:13	0:00
P. Engvall	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	2	15:19	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	8:51	0:00
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	0	19:36	0:00
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	4	6	0	-1	0	19:26	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	16:36	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:26	0:00
O. Wahlstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:24	0:00
M. Martin	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	7:10	0:00
D. Cholowski	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	2	6:45	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	29:48	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	2	3	3	+1	0	24:24	0:00
I. George	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	24:07	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	+1	0	22:06	0:00
G. Hutton	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	15:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	33	29	4	.879	62:35	OT loss
S. Varlamov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamOndrej Palat NYI Faces NJD, his team until Jan 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.1, NYI 3.3	NJD 4, NYI 3
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	NJD 29.5, NYI 30.8	NJD 33, NYI 22
Win chance	NYI 54%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.6	5	1.03	3	34%	2
NYI B. Horvat	2.9	4	0.83	0	35%	0
NJD T. Meier	2.9	2	0.71	0	30%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.7	1	0.73	1	30%	0
NYI B. Nelson	2.7	2	0.85	1	36%	1
NYI A. Lee	2.7	1	0.60	0	28%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.7	1	0.91	0	29%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.6	5	0.58	3	12%	0
NYI N. Dobson	2.5	1	0.80	0	12%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.5	1	0.83	1	25%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.7	0	0.43	0	17%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.7	3	0.51	1	23%	1
NJD B. Pesce	1.6	1	0.25	0	5%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.6	0	0.51	0	20%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.6	2	0.42	0	7%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.6	7	0.54	1	20%	1
NYI P. Engvall	1.6	4	0.38	1	16%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.4	1	0.45	0	7%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.4	1	0.38	1	16%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.3	1	0.53	1	18%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.3	1	0.40	0	16%	0
NYI O. Wahlstrom	1.2	0	0.25	0	12%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	0	0.30	0	13%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.1	0	0.22	1	4%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.1	2	0.38	2	19%	1
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.1	1	0.26	0	6%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	1.0	0	0.26	0	4%	0
NYI G. Hutton	1.0	2	0.10	0	4%	0
NJD T. Tatar	1.0	1	0.30	0	12%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.9	1	0.26	0	5%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	0	0.22	1	11%	0
NYI M. Martin	0.8	0	0.16	0	7%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.8	1	0.21	0	10%	0
NYI D. Cholowski	0.6	1	0.18	1	3%	1
NJD K. MacDermid	0.4	1	0.08	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.