Game Recap: NJD 1, NYI 2, December 23, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD1

FinalTue, Dec 23, 2025Every game that night

NYI2

NYI beat NJD 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 3.29 expected goals to 4.04. S. Holmstrom led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Meier had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. D. Rittich stopped 31 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	1	0	0	1
NYI	0	1	1	2

1st 15:35NJDB. Pesce0.15 xG
2nd 12:10NYIS. Holmstrom0.10 xG
3rd 18:45NYIA. Pelech0.23 xG

Team Stats

NJDNYI

32Shots on goal25

4.04Expected goals3.29

62Shot attempts68

295v5 shots on goal25

0/0Power play0/0

15Hits26

20Blocked shots11

14Giveaways13

1Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 4.04 xGNYI 3.29 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD32 on goal, 1 scored

NYI25 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	0	1	1	3	0	3	0	18:54	0:00
D. Mercer	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	18:00	0:00
J. Hughes	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	20:27	0:00
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	7	1	0	+1	17:51	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:49	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:31	0:00
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	16:22	0:00
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	15:01	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	11:50	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	9:47	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	9:38	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:57	0:00
B. Pesce	D	1	0	1	5	0	4	+1	21:55	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	23:57	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	20:30	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	20:02	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	-1	18:46	0:00
C. White	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	13:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	25	23	2	.920	59:00	Loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
S. Holmstrom	RW	1	1	2	1	1	0	+2	17:06	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	16:51	0:00
M. Barzal	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	21:14	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	16:49	0:00
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:25	0:00
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	14:56	0:00
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	14:54	0:00
M. Shabanov	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	14:52	0:00
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	13:30	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	11:26	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	10:58	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	10:45	0:00
A. Pelech	D	1	0	1	1	0	3	0	23:12	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	21:48	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	21:45	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	21:12	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	+1	17:53	0:00
M. Warren	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	14:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	32	31	1	.969	60:00	Win
M. Hogberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1T. Meier16:51D. Mercer17:00N. Hischier17:54

Line 2J. Bratt15:22J. Hughes19:27O. Palat11:50

Line 3C. Brown17:49A. Gritsyuk15:01C. Glass17:31

Line 4S. Noesen8:57P. Cotter9:47L. Glendening9:38

Pair 1B. Pesce21:55L. Hughes22:57

Pair 2J. Siegenthaler20:30D. Hamilton20:02

Pair 3B. Dillon18:46C. White13:43

NYI

Line 1M. Barzal21:14S. Holmstrom17:06A. Lee16:51

Line 2J. Drouin15:25E. Heineman15:49C. Ritchie13:30

Line 3A. Duclair14:54M. Shabanov14:52J. Pageau13:56

Line 4K. MacLean11:26M. Gatcomb10:58C. Cizikas10:45

Pair 1A. Pelech22:12T. DeAngelo21:45

Pair 2R. Pulock20:48M. Schaefer21:12

Pair 3S. Mayfield17:53M. Warren14:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamOndrej Palat NYI Faces NJD, his team until Jan 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.7, NYI 2.9	NJD 1, NYI 2
Total goals	5.6	3
Shots on goal	NJD 27.6, NYI 29.4	NJD 32, NYI 25
Win chance	NYI 54%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	4.0	1	1.11	0	37%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.2	7	0.71	0	31%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.8	1	0.95	0	27%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.8	2	0.64	0	15%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.7	2	0.50	0	13%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.5	3	0.82	1	30%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.5	2	0.58	1	26%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.4	1	0.88	0	24%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.4	3	0.49	0	19%	0
NJD L. Hughes	2.1	1	0.57	0	8%	0
NYI E. Heineman	2.0	3	0.49	0	25%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.9	0	0.44	0	8%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.9	2	0.47	1	22%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.8	2	0.49	0	19%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.8	1	0.36	0	15%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.7	1	0.29	1	4%	1
NJD S. Noesen	1.6	1	0.40	0	18%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.5	2	0.67	0	17%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.5	0	0.36	0	6%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	1.4	1	0.45	0	16%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.4	1	0.45	0	20%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.4	0	0.38	0	16%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.3	0	0.25	0	16%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.3	5	0.24	1	5%	1
NYI C. Ritchie	1.2	0	0.31	0	14%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	1	0.44	0	16%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.2	1	0.47	2	20%	1
NJD P. Cotter	1.2	0	0.28	0	15%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	2	0.27	0	11%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	1.0	3	0.19	0	4%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	0	0.14	0	3%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.9	2	0.20	0	9%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	0	0.21	0	4%	0
NJD C. White	0.6	1	0.14	0	1%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.5	2	0.10	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.