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Game Recap
NJD0
FinalSat, Oct 3, 2026Every game that night
NYI6

NYI beat NJD 6-0, with the chances close: 3.54 expected goals to 3.80. B. Schenn led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). O. Palat had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. I. Sorokin stopped 37 of 37.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NJD0000
NYI0336
  1. 2nd 3:32NYIS. Holmstrom0.11 xG
  2. 2nd 5:00NYIB. Schenn0.32 xG
  3. 2nd 12:08NYIB. HorvatPP0.16 xG
  4. 3rd 11:32NYIV. Eklund0.14 xG
  5. 3rd 12:14NYIO. Palat0.20 xG
  6. 3rd 18:41NYIC. CizikasSH0.09 xG

Team Stats

NJDNYI
37Shots on goal32
3.80Expected goals3.54
71Shot attempts49
305v5 shots on goal22
0/5Power play1/3
15Hits25
8Blocked shots14
6Penalty minutes10
16Giveaways20
3Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.80 xGNYI 3.54 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdNYI goal, 3:32NYI goal, 5:00NYI goal, 12:08NYI goal, 11:32NYI goal, 12:14NYI goal, 18:41

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD36 on goal, 0 scored
NYI31 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. HughesC000300-1021:015:54
T. MeierRW000640-2019:574:25
N. HischierC0003000019:195:52
L. EvangelistaRW0003010018:555:44
E. RodriguesC000110-2016:143:29
J. BrattLW000220-1015:534:44
A. GritsyukRW000220-2015:222:41
A. ManthaRW000010-2015:083:04
D. MercerC000301-1015:020:59
C. GlassC000111-1011:401:15
S. NoesenRW000200-208:480:46
A. LombardiC000100-248:131:15
D. HamiltonD000302-3022:173:30
L. HughesD0003000221:415:20
J. SiegenthalerD000210-2021:080:10
B. PesceD000210-1018:520:03
B. DillonD000023-1013:130:00
D. ChisholmD000000-2012:400:49
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
N. Daws32266.81359:52Loss
J. Allen000–0:00

NYI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. HolmstromRW112111+2016:461:31
B. SchennC112440+2014:403:14
C. CizikasC112420+2014:050:00
V. EklundRW112110+2212:321:31
B. HorvatC1014320218:313:14
J. PageauC011221+1014:490:00
C. RitchieC011100+2013:421:31
O. PalatLW101421+1012:270:00
E. HeinemanLW0001100016:330:00
K. PalmieriC0002010414:373:14
M. MaccelliLW000200+1014:073:14
A. DuclairLW000011+1011:371:26
M. SchaeferD022200+2020:343:14
L. StanleyD022142+2219:100:00
A. PelechD011021+3019:530:05
A. RomanovD000023+2019:130:00
R. PulockD0000000019:000:00
T. DeAngeloD000301+1017:441:31
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
I. Sorokin373701.00060:00Win
S. Varlamov000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1T. Meier15:32L. Evangelista13:11N. Hischier11:34
Line 2A. Mantha12:04J. Hughes14:41J. Bratt10:50
Line 3E. Rodrigues11:41A. Gritsyuk12:00D. Mercer11:11
Line 4C. Glass7:47A. Lombardi6:58S. Noesen7:54
Pair 1J. Siegenthaler19:41D. Hamilton17:39
Pair 2B. Pesce15:21L. Hughes15:23
Pair 3B. Dillon10:25D. Chisholm11:43

NYI

Line 1S. Holmstrom12:10J. Pageau11:27A. Duclair10:11
Line 2B. Horvat12:55E. Heineman12:23K. Palmieri11:23
Line 3B. Schenn11:16C. Ritchie11:59V. Eklund10:53
Line 4M. Maccelli10:53O. Palat10:20C. Cizikas9:23
Pair 1A. Pelech14:31M. Schaefer16:27
Pair 2T. DeAngelo16:05L. Stanley15:50
Pair 3R. Pulock13:00A. Romanov14:29

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 15 overs hit (67%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
NJD J. Hughes3.5+100-1303Under
NYI B. Horvat2.5-148+1204Over
NJD D. Hamilton2.5+130-1603Over
NYI K. Palmieri2.5+125-1462Under
NJD L. Hughes2.5+170-1853Over
NYI M. Schaefer2.5-110-1142Under
NJD N. Hischier2.5+118-1253Over
NJD T. Meier2.5-130+1106Over
NJD A. Gritsyuk1.5-105-1252Over
NJD A. Mantha1.5-115-1100Under
NYI B. Schenn1.5-104-1254Over
NJD E. Rodrigues1.5-160+1341Under
NJD J. Bratt1.5-192+1502Over
NJD L. Evangelista1.5-190+1603Over
NYI T. DeAngelo1.5-105-1103Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamOndrej Palat NYI Faces NJD, his team until Jan 20261 G, 4 SOG
  • BirthdayVictor Eklund NYI Turns 20 that day1 G, 1 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNJD 2.9, NYI 3.0NJD 0, NYI 6
Total goals6.06
Shots on goalNJD 28.1, NYI 28.2NJD 37, NYI 32
Win chanceNYI 52%NYI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD J. Hughes3.831.15036%0
NYI B. Horvat3.140.77132%1
NJD T. Meier3.060.55026%0
NYI M. Schaefer2.720.70220%0
NJD D. Hamilton2.430.54013%0
NJD N. Hischier2.330.74027%0
NYI K. Palmieri2.220.58024%0
NJD A. Gritsyuk2.220.44017%0
NJD J. Bratt2.220.83023%0
NJD L. Evangelista2.030.55015%0
NJD L. Hughes2.030.5509%0
NJD E. Rodrigues1.810.39014%0
NJD D. Mercer1.830.44020%0
NYI T. DeAngelo1.830.4609%0
NYI E. Heineman1.710.33019%0
NJD A. Mantha1.700.58023%0
NYI B. Schenn1.640.55221%1
NYI C. Ritchie1.510.52119%0
NYI S. Holmstrom1.410.52221%1
NYI A. Pelech1.400.2514%0
NYI M. Maccelli1.420.50016%0
NYI A. Romanov1.300.2405%0
NJD C. Glass1.310.30014%0
NYI J. Pageau1.220.45116%0
NJD B. Pesce1.220.2204%0
NJD S. Noesen1.120.26012%0
NYI A. Duclair1.100.37017%0
NYI C. Cizikas1.140.22210%1
NYI R. Pulock1.100.2905%0
NYI L. Stanley0.910.2125%0
NYI O. Palat0.940.24111%1
NJD J. Siegenthaler0.820.1902%0
NJD D. Chisholm0.700.1703%0
NJD B. Dillon0.600.1904%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.