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Game Recap
NJD5
Final/OTSat, Nov 7, 2026Every game that night
NYI4

NJD beat NYI 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 5.21 expected goals to 3.07. NJD outshot NYI 50 to 23. J. Hughes led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Meier had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. J. Allen stopped 19 of 23.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
NJD11215
NYI22004
  1. 1st 15:06NYIA. Duclair0.19 xG
  2. 1st 15:23NJDE. Rodrigues0.18 xG
  3. 1st 17:14NYIM. Schaefer0.05 xG
  4. 2nd 4:42NJDD. Chisholm0.04 xG
  5. 2nd 5:08NYIS. Holmstrom0.23 xG
  6. 2nd 11:54NYIV. Eklund0.05 xG
  7. 3rd 6:08NJDL. Evangelista0.51 xG
  8. 3rd 13:42NJDD. HamiltonPP0.14 xG
  9. OT 1:18NJDJ. Hughes0.24 xG

Team Stats

NJDNYI
50Shots on goal23
5.21Expected goals3.07
81Shot attempts44
395v5 shots on goal23
1/4Power play0/0
26Hits23
11Blocked shots13
4Penalty minutes32
10Giveaways17
4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 5.21 xGNYI 3.07 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdOTNYI goal, 15:06NJD goal, 15:23NYI goal, 17:14NJD goal, 4:42NYI goal, 5:08NYI goal, 11:54NJD goal, 6:08NJD goal, 13:42NJD goal, 1:18

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD50 on goal, 5 scored
NYI23 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. HughesC112500+2023:365:07
L. EvangelistaRW112520-1015:542:42
J. BrattLW011421+2019:443:42
N. HischierC011600-1019:315:08
A. GritsyukRW011621+1016:342:22
E. RodriguesC101231-1013:350:11
A. ManthaRW011010-1013:271:26
T. MeierRW000811-1017:431:38
C. BrownRW0001200015:033:49
J. BoqvistC000030-1013:100:00
A. LombardiC0000200010:310:00
C. GlassC0001100010:200:00
L. HughesD011100+1226:331:59
D. HamiltonD101420-2021:294:35
B. PesceD0113010221:280:00
D. ChisholmD101212+1012:080:00
J. SiegenthalerD000122-2018:580:11
J. KovacevicD000122+1014:190:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Allen23194.82661:09Win
C. Hellebuyck000–0:00

NYI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. HorvatC0222100020:320:00
S. HolmstromRW1122000218:040:00
E. HeinemanLW011230+2016:350:00
J. PageauC011021-1015:110:00
K. PalmieriC011200+1014:580:00
B. SchennC011341+11014:320:00
V. EklundRW101250+1014:190:00
A. DuclairLW101100-21012:430:00
O. PalatLW000020-1213:290:00
C. CizikasC0000010012:100:00
K. MacLeanC0001110011:250:00
M. ChaffeeRW0001100011:110:00
M. SchaeferD101322-1223:370:00
T. DeAngeloD0113010019:470:00
A. PelechD0001030222:130:00
L. StanleyD0000130421:380:00
M. KesselD000010+1018:200:00
B. HuttonD000000+1016:030:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
I. Sorokin50455.90061:18OT loss
S. Varlamov000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1J. Bratt15:11J. Hughes17:02A. Gritsyuk14:12
Line 2T. Meier15:56L. Evangelista13:12N. Hischier13:38
Line 3E. Rodrigues13:24J. Boqvist13:10A. Mantha12:01
Line 4C. Brown11:14A. Lombardi10:31C. Glass10:20
Pair 1B. Pesce21:19L. Hughes23:07
Pair 2D. Hamilton16:54J. Siegenthaler18:47
Pair 3J. Kovacevic14:19D. Chisholm12:08

NYI

Line 1K. Palmieri14:58B. Horvat16:23S. Holmstrom14:26
Line 2B. Schenn14:23V. Eklund14:10E. Heineman14:42
Line 3J. Pageau11:59A. Duclair12:18O. Palat13:29
Line 4K. MacLean10:50M. Chaffee11:11C. Cizikas10:44
Pair 1A. Pelech17:24T. DeAngelo19:47
Pair 2M. Schaefer21:01L. Stanley17:06
Pair 3B. Hutton15:39M. Kessel15:55

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

16 of 25 overs hit (64%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
NJD J. Hughes3.5-104-1055Over
NYI B. Horvat2.5-145+1352Under
NJD D. Hamilton2.5+145-1554Over
NJD L. Evangelista2.5+150-1905Over
NJD L. Hughes2.5+130-1601Under
NYI M. Schaefer2.5-155+1263Over
NJD N. Hischier2.5+142-1656Over
NJD T. Meier2.5-135+1108Over
NYI A. Duclair1.5+110–1Under
NJD A. Gritsyuk1.5-170+1356Over
NJD A. Mantha1.5+100–0Under
NYI A. Pelech1.5+125–1Under
NJD B. Pesce1.5+120–3Over
NYI B. Schenn1.5-114-1053Over
NJD C. Brown1.5+170-2401Under
NJD C. Glass1.5+105–1Under
NYI E. Heineman1.5+100-1202Over
NJD E. Rodrigues1.5+110-1352Over
NJD J. Bratt1.5-165+1354Over
NYI J. Pageau1.5+115–0Under
NYI K. Palmieri1.5-185+1462Over
NYI O. Palat1.5+125–0Under
NYI S. Holmstrom1.5-121-1052Over
NYI T. DeAngelo1.5+130-1403Over
NYI V. Eklund1.5+100-1202Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamOndrej Palat NYI Faces NJD, his team until Jan 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNJD 3.0, NYI 2.9NJD 5, NYI 4
Total goals5.99
Shots on goalNJD 28.7, NYI 26.5NJD 50, NYI 23
Win chanceNJD 51%NJD won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD J. Hughes3.351.03234%1
NYI M. Schaefer3.230.92122%1
NYI B. Horvat3.120.85236%0
NJD T. Meier3.080.55027%0
NJD D. Hamilton2.340.50111%1
NJD A. Gritsyuk2.260.50120%0
NYI K. Palmieri2.220.65127%0
NJD L. Evangelista2.250.59218%1
NJD L. Hughes2.210.62112%0
NJD N. Hischier2.160.67127%0
NJD J. Bratt2.040.78122%0
NYI E. Heineman1.820.40121%0
NJD E. Rodrigues1.720.39114%1
NYI T. DeAngelo1.730.4618%0
NYI B. Schenn1.630.63124%0
NYI V. Eklund1.520.48119%1
NJD A. Mantha1.500.52120%0
NJD A. Lombardi1.500.29013%0
NYI S. Holmstrom1.420.57223%1
NYI L. Stanley1.400.4208%0
NYI A. Pelech1.310.2705%0
NJD C. Brown1.310.43017%0
NYI A. Duclair1.310.41118%1
NJD C. Glass1.210.26013%0
NYI J. Pageau1.200.47117%0
NYI O. Palat1.200.35015%0
NJD B. Pesce1.230.2715%0
NYI B. Hutton1.100.2105%0
NJD J. Boqvist1.000.24011%0
NYI C. Cizikas1.000.22011%0
NYI M. Chaffee0.810.18010%0
NJD J. Kovacevic0.710.1703%0
NJD D. Chisholm0.720.1713%1
NYI M. Kessel0.700.1603%0
NJD J. Siegenthaler0.710.2103%0
NYI K. MacLean0.710.1508%0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.