NJD beat NYR 5-1, with the chances close: 3.76 expected goals to 3.10. NYR outshot NJD 39 to 28. J. Bratt led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). V. Trocheck had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Markstrom stopped 38 of 39.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| NYR | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 1:27NJDJ. Bratt0.12 xG
- 1st 7:10NJDD. Mercer0.14 xG
- 2nd 9:04NJDD. HamiltonPP0.24 xG
- 2nd 12:38NJDJ. Hughes0.56 xG
- 2nd 13:29NYRC. KreiderPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 18:56NJDJ. HughesPP0.12 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 3.76 xGNYR 3.10 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Bratt | LW | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 18:22 | 3:32 |
| J. Hughes | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:35 | 3:35 |
| D. Mercer | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:28 | 2:11 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 13:12 | 1:38 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:26 | 2:09 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:03 | 3:47 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 3:20 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:34 | 2:03 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:00 |
| N. Légaré | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:10 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:47 | 0:10 |
| M. Hardman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:24 | 0:10 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:05 | 2:15 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:00 | 3:57 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 21:20 | 0:00 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 20:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:12 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:51 | 0:10 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 39 | 38 | 1 | .974 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:29 | 6:06 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:46 | 6:03 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:43 | 6:08 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:27 | 6:09 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:05 | 0:17 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:41 | 0:15 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:18 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:32 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:01 | 0:00 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:47 | 0:15 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 9:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:47 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 25:37 | 5:12 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19:23 | 0:03 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:37 | 1:09 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:01 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 28 | 23 | 5 | .821 | 59:58 | Loss |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 3.1, NYR 3.4 | NJD 5, NYR 1 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 31.8, NYR 29.2 | NJD 28, NYR 39 |
| Win chance | NYR 55% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.8 | 8 | 1.05 | 3 | 34% | 2 |
| NJD T. Meier | 2.9 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.9 | 3 | 1.19 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.8 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.7 | 1 | 0.87 | 4 | 26% | 1 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.6 | 2 | 0.58 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.4 | 5 | 0.73 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.3 | 7 | 0.83 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.3 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.2 | 5 | 0.86 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 2.0 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 1.9 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.9 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.7 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.7 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.6 | 5 | 0.89 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR J. Trouba | 1.6 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.6 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.5 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR K. Kakko | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.3 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.8 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD M. Hardman | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.