Game Recap: NJD 1, NYR 4, March 31, 2026

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Game Recap

NJD1

FinalTue, Mar 31, 2026Every game that night

NYR4

NYR beat NJD 4-1, with the chances close: 3.80 expected goals to 3.24. A. Fox led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). I. Shesterkin stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	0	1	0	1
NYR	2	1	1	4

1st 8:14NYRC. Sheary0.04 xG
1st 13:39NYRJ. MillerPP0.38 xG
2nd 0:51NJDC. BrownPP0.54 xG
2nd 11:12NYRJ. Chmelar0.33 xG
3rd 3:49NYRM. Zibanejad0.19 xG

Team Stats

NJDNYR

23Shots on goal23

3.24Expected goals3.80

65Shot attempts58

185v5 shots on goal21

1/3Power play1/3

19Hits33

10Blocked shots17

6Penalty minutes6

21Giveaways13

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.24 xGNYR 3.80 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD22 on goal, 1 scored

NYR22 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Brown	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	-1	0	21:06	2:57
N. Hischier	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	19:38	2:34
J. Hughes	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	21:58	2:51
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	19:03	2:19
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	18:29	1:30
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:51	1:15
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:39	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	11:08	0:00
L. Hameenaho	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	10:05	0:35
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:01	0:00
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:09	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	8:05	0:23
L. Hughes	D	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	25:05	2:37
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	22:54	0:52
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	2	18:23	1:12
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	7	0	-1	2	17:37	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	17:34	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	16:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	23	19	4	.826	60:00	Loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	2	19:10	4:29
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	17:52	4:29
M. Zibanejad	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	17:20	4:29
G. Perreault	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	2	14:42	0:45
T. Kartye	LW	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	14:02	0:00
C. Sheary	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	12:37	0:00
J. Chmelar	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	10:31	0:00
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	22:07	4:29
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	16:27	0:45
A. Sykora	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	13:02	0:00
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	11:54	0:45
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	11:50	0:30
A. Fox	D	0	2	2	0	1	1	+1	0	22:37	4:29
B. Schneider	D	0	1	1	1	4	3	+1	0	18:35	0:15
W. Borgen	D	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	0	18:30	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	+1	0	22:18	0:45
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	18:32	0:00
D. Fortescue	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	13:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	23	22	1	.957	60:00	Win
D. Garand	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1J. Bratt16:27J. Hughes19:07C. Brown15:29

Line 2N. Hischier14:39D. Mercer14:19T. Meier16:59

Line 3C. Glass10:39L. Hameenaho9:30N. Bjugstad10:21

Line 4E. Dadonov8:09M. Tsyplakov9:01P. Cotter7:42

Pair 1D. Hamilton15:34J. Siegenthaler13:53

Pair 2B. Dillon15:33S. Nemec22:02

Pair 3J. Kovacevic14:27L. Hughes20:54

NYR

Line 1V. Trocheck15:42W. Cuylle14:56A. Sykora13:02

Line 2A. Lafrenière13:23G. Perreault13:57M. Zibanejad11:50

Line 3J. Miller13:45T. Kartye12:41C. Sheary12:00

Line 4J. Brodzinski11:20N. Laba9:47J. Chmelar10:31

Pair 1W. Borgen16:51M. Robertson18:32

Pair 2V. Gavrikov19:06A. Fox16:44

Pair 3B. Schneider16:50D. Fortescue13:48

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.0, NYR 2.9	NJD 1, NYR 4
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	NJD 30.4, NYR 25.0	NJD 23, NYR 23
Win chance	NJD 51%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.7	4	1.16	0	35%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.4	1	0.65	0	30%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.8	0	0.52	0	13%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.5	1	0.82	1	30%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	2	0.89	1	30%	1
NJD J. Bratt	2.1	2	0.87	0	24%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.1	2	0.72	1	26%	0
NJD L. Hughes	2.1	4	0.50	1	7%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.0	1	0.93	1	28%	1
NYR V. Trocheck	1.9	1	0.79	0	26%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.8	3	0.61	1	20%	1
NJD D. Mercer	1.8	1	0.46	0	21%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.7	0	0.84	2	13%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.7	0	0.42	0	19%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.4	0	0.31	0	9%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.4	1	0.37	0	9%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.4	3	0.46	1	16%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.4	1	0.33	0	14%	0
NJD L. Hameenaho	1.3	2	0.27	0	11%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	1	0.27	1	6%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.2	1	0.26	0	6%	0
NYR T. Kartye	1.2	2	0.37	1	15%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.2	2	0.34	1	14%	1
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.1	2	0.27	0	12%	0
NJD E. Dadonov	1.1	1	0.32	0	14%	0
NJD N. Bjugstad	1.1	1	0.19	0	10%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.0	1	0.20	0	3%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	1	0.22	1	5%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	1	0.31	0	13%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.9	0	0.17	0	2%	0
NJD M. Tsyplakov	0.9	0	0.19	0	7%	0
NYR J. Chmelar	0.8	3	0.19	1	10%	1
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	0	0.19	0	4%	0
NJD P. Cotter	0.7	1	0.18	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.