Game Recap: NJD 3, SEA 2, January 6, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD3

FinalMon, Jan 6, 2025Every game that night

SEA2

NJD beat SEA 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.48 expected goals to 2.05. D. Mercer led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Markstrom stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	1	1	1	3
SEA	1	0	1	2

1st 7:56NJDD. Mercer0.19 xG
1st 15:47SEAA. Larsson0.01 xG
2nd 19:35NJDP. Cotter0.07 xG
3rd 1:24SEAS. WrightPP0.20 xG
3rd 2:01NJDO. Palat0.14 xG

Team Stats

NJDSEA

29Shots on goal24

3.48Expected goals2.05

65Shot attempts52

295v5 shots on goal22

0/0Power play1/1

12Hits21

14Blocked shots13

7Penalty minutes5

7Giveaways19

3Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.48 xGSEA 2.05 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD29 on goal, 3 scored

SEA24 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Mercer	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	13:43	0:00
N. Hischier	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	22:32	0:00
T. Meier	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	22:04	0:00
J. Hughes	C	0	1	1	5	0	1	+1	0	16:37	0:00
O. Palat	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	15:37	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	12:19	0:00
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:18	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	17:55	0:00
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	12:30	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	10:05	0:00
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:19	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	8:17	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	21:40	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	0	16:04	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	5	22:21	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	21:48	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+2	2	20:07	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	24	22	2	.917	60:00	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	19:00	0:20
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	0	0	2	-1	0	18:53	1:12
J. McCann	LW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	17:36	0:20
S. Wright	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	-1	0	13:21	0:20
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	21:27	1:12
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	20:03	1:12
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	16:13	1:12
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:51	0:20
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	1	3	2	-3	0	13:33	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	9:55	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	8:51	0:00
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:44	0:00
A. Larsson	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	18:18	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	26:19	1:32
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	5	25:10	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	17:50	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	17:40	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	13:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	29	26	3	.897	57:54	Loss
A. Stezka	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.2, SEA 2.9	NJD 3, SEA 2
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	NJD 28.8, SEA 25.7	NJD 29, SEA 24
Win chance	NJD 55%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.5	5	1.11	1	34%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.6	1	0.62	0	16%	0
NJD T. Meier	2.5	3	0.65	1	28%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.5	4	0.54	1	14%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.4	2	0.86	1	28%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.4	2	0.74	1	32%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.2	1	0.96	0	27%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.0	2	0.56	0	24%	0
NJD S. Noesen	2.0	2	0.59	0	23%	0
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	1.9	2	0.61	0	23%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.8	1	0.70	0	14%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.6	4	0.53	0	21%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.5	1	0.49	0	18%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.5	1	0.48	0	8%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.5	1	0.42	1	18%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.5	1	0.39	0	18%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.4	3	0.45	2	20%	1
NJD B. Pesce	1.4	0	0.23	0	6%	0
SEA B. Tanev	1.2	1	0.33	0	16%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.2	3	0.41	1	16%	1
SEA A. Larsson	1.2	2	0.21	1	6%	1
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	2	0.34	1	15%	1
SEA C. Stephenson	1.1	0	0.69	1	21%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.0	1	0.47	1	20%	1
NJD N. Bastian	1.0	0	0.24	0	11%	0
SEA R. Evans	1.0	2	0.36	0	6%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.0	2	0.22	0	12%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	0	0.20	0	5%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.9	2	0.18	0	4%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.8	0	0.22	1	5%	0
NJD T. Tatar	0.8	0	0.26	0	11%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.8	1	0.17	0	3%	0
NJD C. Lazar	0.8	1	0.20	0	8%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.7	0	0.18	0	10%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	0	0.23	0	5%	0
SEA B. Meyers	0.6	0	0.11	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.